TGT chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -1.5% | -2.8% | 10.7% | 45% |
| Day 2 | -0.3% | -0.5% | 2.5% | 35% |
| Day 3 | +0.5% | +0.3% | 2.0% | 55% |
| 5-day | -2.2% | -2.8% | 10.2% | 40% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 beat | 2.34 | 4.11 | +75.8% | -3.1% | +4.3% | +3.2% | — |
| 2026-05-20 beat | 1.46 | 1.71 | +17.3% | -5.5% | -3.9% | +5.2% | +6.0% |
| 2026-03-03 beat | 2.16 | 2.44 | +13.0% | +2.5% | +6.7% | +0.0% | -0.3% |
| 2025-11-19 beat | 1.71 | 1.78 | +4.1% | -2.4% | -2.8% | +4.3% | +13.9% |
| 2025-08-20 beat | 2.03 | 2.05 | +0.8% | -10.4% | -6.3% | -0.7% | -10.7% |
| 2025-05-21 miss | 1.65 | 1.30 | -21.3% | -6.7% | -5.2% | +2.0% | +3.8% |
| 2025-03-04 beat | 2.25 | 2.41 | +7.0% | -2.7% | -3.0% | -3.7% | -9.7% |
| 2024-11-20 miss | 2.30 | 1.85 | -19.6% | -17.9% | -22.0% | +6.9% | +8.0% |
| 2024-08-21 beat | 2.18 | 2.57 | +17.7% | +15.9% | +10.3% | -1.5% | -2.8% |
| 2024-05-22 miss | 2.06 | 2.03 | -1.2% | -9.8% | -8.0% | +4.6% | +4.5% |
| 2024-03-05 beat | 2.41 | 2.98 | +23.5% | +10.3% | +12.0% | -0.6% | +2.2% |
| 2023-11-15 beat | 1.48 | 2.10 | +41.9% | +13.8% | +17.8% | +0.0% | +6.1% |
| 2023-08-16 beat | 1.42 | 1.80 | +26.9% | +8.0% | +3.0% | -4.3% | -4.4% |
| 2023-05-17 beat | 1.79 | 2.05 | +14.7% | -0.7% | +2.6% | -11.1% | -16.9% |
| 2023-02-28 beat | 1.40 | 1.89 | +35.1% | +1.2% | +1.0% | -3.4% | -6.2% |
| 2022-11-16 miss | 2.18 | 1.54 | -29.4% | -16.3% | -13.1% | +5.1% | -5.8% |
| 2022-08-17 miss | 0.72 | 0.39 | -45.5% | -3.3% | -2.7% | -7.0% | -6.4% |
| 2022-05-18 miss | 3.06 | 2.19 | -28.5% | -24.3% | -24.9% | -3.2% | -13.8% |
| 2022-03-01 beat | 2.84 | 3.19 | +12.3% | +13.5% | +9.8% | -4.8% | +1.2% |
| 2021-11-17 beat | 2.81 | 3.03 | +7.8% | -4.7% | -4.7% | -2.0% | -12.0% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.