TSM chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +1.9% | +2.6% | 4.3% | 65% |
| Day 2 | -1.1% | -1.6% | 2.1% | 35% |
| Day 3 | +0.1% | +0.6% | 2.2% | 60% |
| 5-day | +1.5% | +0.4% | 6.1% | 50% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 beat | 3.89 | 4.31 | +10.9% | -3.4% | -2.3% | +1.4% | +4.1% |
| 2026-04-15 beat | 3.33 | 3.49 | +4.7% | -1.7% | -3.1% | +5.3% | +11.3% |
| 2026-01-15 beat | 2.98 | 3.14 | +5.5% | +4.8% | +4.4% | -2.0% | +6.6% |
| 2025-10-15 beat | 2.63 | 2.92 | +11.2% | +2.0% | -1.6% | -3.0% | -5.0% |
| 2025-07-17 beat | 2.31 | 2.47 | +6.8% | +3.5% | +3.4% | -1.6% | -2.7% |
| 2025-04-17 beat | 2.05 | 2.12 | +3.2% | +2.9% | +0.0% | +8.8% | +27.5% |
| 2025-01-16 beat | 2.22 | 2.24 | +0.7% | +5.8% | +3.9% | +3.3% | -5.6% |
| 2024-10-17 beat | 1.79 | 1.94 | +8.4% | +8.5% | +9.8% | -3.8% | -9.6% |
| 2024-07-18 beat | 1.42 | 1.48 | +4.0% | +2.5% | +0.4% | -6.7% | +1.6% |
| 2024-04-18 beat | 1.32 | 1.38 | +4.5% | -4.4% | -4.9% | +3.3% | +14.7% |
| 2024-01-18 beat | 1.37 | 1.44 | +5.1% | +8.0% | +9.8% | +3.1% | +12.1% |
| 2023-10-18 beat | 1.17 | 1.29 | +10.3% | +3.9% | +3.7% | -5.9% | +7.2% |
| 2023-07-20 beat | 1.08 | 1.14 | +5.5% | -4.4% | -5.0% | +1.5% | -6.9% |
| 2023-04-20 beat | 1.19 | 1.31 | +10.2% | +1.2% | +2.4% | -6.3% | +3.7% |
| 2023-01-12 beat | 1.76 | 1.82 | +3.4% | +3.9% | +6.4% | +4.6% | +10.5% |
| 2022-10-13 beat | 1.68 | 1.79 | +6.3% | -1.6% | +3.9% | -4.6% | +10.8% |
| 2022-07-13 beat | 1.50 | 1.55 | +3.0% | +2.0% | +2.9% | +4.9% | +8.6% |
| 2022-04-14 beat | 1.31 | 1.40 | +6.9% | +2.5% | -3.1% | -2.7% | -8.1% |
| 2022-01-13 beat | 1.12 | 1.15 | +2.7% | +6.4% | +5.3% | -10.5% | -14.0% |
| 2021-10-14 beat | 1.04 | 1.07 | +3.4% | +3.8% | +2.3% | +3.3% | +5.4% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.