TSM chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +1.0% | +0.8% | 3.6% | 58% |
| Day 2 | -0.2% | +0.0% | 1.8% | 50% |
| Day 3 | +0.2% | +0.2% | 1.8% | 57% |
| 5-day | +1.2% | +1.4% | 5.1% | 53% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 beat | 3.89 | 4.31 | +10.9% | -3.4% | -2.3% | +1.4% | +4.1% |
| 2026-04-15 beat | 3.33 | 3.49 | +4.7% | -1.7% | -3.1% | +5.3% | +11.3% |
| 2026-01-15 beat | 2.98 | 3.14 | +5.5% | +4.8% | +4.4% | -2.0% | +6.6% |
| 2025-10-15 beat | 2.63 | 2.92 | +11.2% | +2.0% | -1.6% | -3.0% | -5.0% |
| 2025-07-17 beat | 2.31 | 2.47 | +6.8% | +3.5% | +3.4% | -1.6% | -2.7% |
| 2025-04-17 beat | 2.05 | 2.12 | +3.2% | +2.9% | +0.0% | +8.8% | +27.5% |
| 2025-01-16 beat | 2.22 | 2.24 | +0.7% | +5.8% | +3.9% | +3.3% | -5.6% |
| 2024-10-17 beat | 1.79 | 1.94 | +8.4% | +8.5% | +9.8% | -3.8% | -9.6% |
| 2024-07-18 beat | 1.42 | 1.48 | +4.0% | +2.5% | +0.4% | -6.7% | +1.6% |
| 2024-04-18 beat | 1.32 | 1.38 | +4.5% | -4.4% | -4.9% | +3.3% | +14.7% |
| 2024-01-18 beat | 1.37 | 1.44 | +5.1% | +8.0% | +9.8% | +3.1% | +12.1% |
| 2023-10-18 beat | 1.17 | 1.29 | +10.3% | +3.9% | +3.7% | -5.9% | +7.2% |
| 2023-07-20 beat | 1.08 | 1.14 | +5.5% | -4.4% | -5.0% | +1.5% | -6.9% |
| 2023-04-20 beat | 1.19 | 1.31 | +10.2% | +1.2% | +2.4% | -6.3% | +3.7% |
| 2023-01-12 beat | 1.76 | 1.82 | +3.4% | +3.9% | +6.4% | +4.6% | +10.5% |
| 2022-10-13 beat | 1.68 | 1.79 | +6.3% | -1.6% | +3.9% | -4.6% | +10.8% |
| 2022-07-13 beat | 1.50 | 1.55 | +3.0% | +2.0% | +2.9% | +4.9% | +8.6% |
| 2022-04-14 beat | 1.31 | 1.40 | +6.9% | +2.5% | -3.1% | -2.7% | -8.1% |
| 2022-01-13 beat | 1.12 | 1.15 | +2.7% | +6.4% | +5.3% | -10.5% | -14.0% |
| 2021-10-14 beat | 1.04 | 1.07 | +3.4% | +3.8% | +2.3% | +3.3% | +5.4% |
| 2021-07-15 beat | 0.92 | 0.93 | +0.9% | -3.4% | -5.5% | -0.8% | -1.7% |
| 2021-04-15 beat | 0.93 | 0.96 | +2.8% | +0.7% | -2.1% | -2.6% | -5.0% |
| 2021-01-14 beat | 0.94 | 0.97 | +2.7% | +3.5% | +6.1% | +2.1% | +10.8% |
| 2020-10-14 beat | 0.82 | 0.90 | +9.9% | -1.5% | -0.5% | +0.1% | +5.8% |
| 2020-07-16 beat | 0.71 | 0.78 | +10.1% | -1.0% | +0.8% | +1.2% | +17.8% |
| 2020-04-16 beat | 0.69 | 0.75 | +9.0% | +4.3% | +5.5% | +0.5% | -5.0% |
| 2020-01-16 beat | 0.71 | 0.75 | +4.6% | +1.4% | +0.6% | -1.7% | -4.4% |
| 2019-10-17 beat | 0.60 | 0.62 | +2.6% | +2.0% | -0.8% | +2.4% | +7.1% |
| 2019-07-17 beat | 0.41 | 0.41 | +0.5% | +2.1% | +3.7% | +1.0% | -3.8% |
| 2019-04-18 beat | 0.37 | 0.38 | +1.4% | -0.7% | +2.3% | -3.2% | -14.8% |
| 2019-01-17 beat | 0.62 | 0.63 | +2.0% | -2.0% | +1.8% | +5.1% | +6.0% |
| 2018-10-18 beat | 0.55 | 0.56 | +1.4% | +0.6% | -2.6% | -3.0% | -4.3% |
| 2018-07-19 beat | 0.46 | 0.47 | +1.3% | +2.7% | +3.6% | +2.5% | +0.8% |
| 2018-04-19 miss | 0.60 | 0.59 | -2.1% | -4.7% | -5.7% | -3.4% | -2.8% |
| 2018-01-18 beat | 0.63 | 0.64 | +2.3% | +1.7% | +3.3% | +1.2% | -2.4% |
| 2017-10-19 beat | 0.56 | 0.57 | +1.5% | -1.2% | -1.0% | +0.3% | +2.4% |
| 2017-07-13 miss | 0.43 | 0.42 | -1.1% | -0.6% | +1.3% | -0.1% | +0.0% |
| 2017-04-13 beat | 0.53 | 0.56 | +4.7% | -0.6% | -1.4% | +0.8% | +10.1% |
| 2017-01-12 beat | 0.59 | 0.61 | +4.3% | -2.8% | -2.9% | +2.7% | +8.2% |
| 2016-10-13 beat | 0.58 | 0.59 | +2.6% | -1.3% | -2.6% | +1.7% | -2.0% |
| 2016-07-14 beat | 0.41 | 0.43 | +5.7% | +0.4% | +0.8% | +1.4% | +7.9% |
| 2016-04-13 beat | 0.37 | 0.38 | +2.2% | -3.3% | -3.3% | -0.6% | -9.8% |
| 2016-01-14 beat | 0.40 | 0.43 | +7.8% | +1.2% | +6.5% | +0.5% | +7.0% |
| 2015-10-15 beat | 0.45 | 0.46 | +3.4% | +0.9% | -1.7% | +2.6% | -0.3% |
| 2015-07-16 beat | 0.44 | 0.50 | +13.7% | -2.3% | +0.8% | -1.8% | -10.3% |
| 2015-04-16 beat | 0.47 | 0.48 | +1.6% | +0.0% | -1.1% | +4.6% | +5.7% |
| 2013-04-18 beat | 0.25 | 0.26 | +2.6% | +6.2% | +5.0% | +4.2% | +8.8% |
| 2013-01-17 miss | 0.28 | 0.28 | -0.3% | +1.7% | +2.6% | -2.8% | +4.9% |
| 2012-10-25 beat | 0.31 | 0.32 | +2.5% | +1.7% | +1.5% | +3.3% | +9.9% |
| 2012-07-19 miss | 0.27 | 0.27 | -0.3% | +2.0% | -2.1% | +3.9% | +12.0% |
| 2012-04-26 beat | 0.19 | 0.22 | +17.9% | +2.3% | +6.1% | -0.8% | -11.6% |
| 2012-01-18 beat | 0.20 | 0.20 | +1.3% | +1.2% | +2.7% | +2.4% | +5.1% |
| 2011-10-27 beat | 0.19 | 0.20 | +4.1% | +3.6% | +5.7% | -0.4% | -3.1% |
| 2011-07-28 beat | 0.24 | 0.24 | +0.4% | -0.5% | -2.0% | -5.9% | -4.1% |
| 2011-04-28 miss | 0.24 | 0.24 | -0.3% | -0.8% | +0.9% | +1.0% | -1.1% |
| 2011-01-27 beat | 0.24 | 0.27 | +11.0% | +1.4% | -1.5% | +3.9% | -7.1% |
| 2010-10-28 beat | 0.24 | 0.28 | +17.9% | +2.1% | +1.0% | +4.6% | +0.5% |
| 2010-07-30 beat | 0.21 | 0.24 | +14.3% | -0.4% | -0.8% | -1.4% | -6.7% |
| 2010-04-27 beat | 0.19 | 0.20 | +5.3% | -0.9% | -3.5% | -4.8% | -10.8% |
| 2010-01-28 beat | 0.18 | 0.19 | +3.9% | +1.9% | +0.6% | -3.7% | -1.0% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.