UBS chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -1.2% | -0.7% | 3.9% | 30% |
| Day 2 | -0.3% | -0.6% | 1.9% | 30% |
| Day 3 | +0.2% | +0.2% | 1.4% | 60% |
| 5-day | -0.3% | +0.7% | 5.0% | 70% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 miss | 0.98 | 0.93 | -4.7% | +1.1% | -0.4% | +3.4% | +4.9% |
| 2026-04-29 beat | 0.83 | 0.95 | +14.9% | +4.8% | +1.5% | +5.8% | +10.2% |
| 2026-02-04 miss | 0.67 | 0.67 | -0.7% | -4.8% | -5.9% | -5.8% | -14.3% |
| 2025-10-29 beat | 0.60 | 0.92 | +51.9% | -1.3% | -2.1% | +0.2% | +0.8% |
| 2025-07-29 miss | 0.92 | 0.82 | -10.8% | +0.1% | -0.2% | +0.3% | +7.0% |
| 2025-04-30 beat | 0.44 | 0.60 | +35.9% | -1.5% | -0.9% | +2.2% | +5.5% |
| 2025-02-03 beat | 0.34 | 0.39 | +15.9% | -5.7% | -7.2% | +2.3% | +2.1% |
| 2024-10-30 beat | 0.37 | 0.53 | +43.1% | -3.8% | -4.5% | +5.3% | +3.2% |
| 2023-11-07 miss | 1.27 | -0.24 | -118.9% | +2.6% | +2.3% | -0.1% | +13.0% |
| 2023-08-31 beat | 1.27 | 8.99 | +607.9% | +5.2% | +5.6% | -4.5% | -8.8% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.