UPST chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -1.5% | -9.6% | 27.9% | 30% |
| Day 2 | -0.8% | -2.8% | 10.6% | 40% |
| Day 3 | +0.3% | -1.1% | 6.0% | 40% |
| 5-day | -0.2% | -2.1% | 25.9% | 45% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 beat | 0.55 | 0.57 | +2.7% | +14.1% | -0.4% | -3.6% | -5.6% |
| 2026-05-05 miss | 0.43 | 0.30 | -29.0% | -10.2% | -7.9% | -6.0% | +3.6% |
| 2026-02-10 beat | 0.46 | 0.50 | +7.6% | -3.7% | -15.0% | -7.4% | -20.4% |
| 2025-11-04 beat | 0.42 | 0.52 | +23.4% | -14.8% | -9.7% | -5.1% | +12.0% |
| 2025-08-05 beat | 0.25 | 0.36 | +41.6% | -2.7% | -18.7% | -0.5% | -0.4% |
| 2025-05-06 beat | 0.17 | 0.30 | +75.9% | -16.3% | -9.6% | +10.5% | +17.0% |
| 2025-02-11 beat | -0.04 | 0.26 | +750.2% | +23.9% | +31.8% | -10.8% | -45.3% |
| 2024-11-07 beat | -0.15 | -0.06 | +59.1% | +17.7% | +46.0% | -15.6% | -8.6% |
| 2024-08-06 beat | -0.39 | -0.17 | +56.7% | +25.7% | +39.5% | +8.3% | +3.3% |
| 2024-05-07 beat | -0.39 | -0.31 | +20.0% | -14.6% | -5.6% | +21.6% | +6.4% |
| 2024-02-13 beat | -0.14 | -0.11 | +21.4% | -10.7% | -19.6% | -7.5% | -10.7% |
| 2023-11-07 miss | -0.02 | -0.05 | -158.0% | -27.6% | -27.3% | +21.6% | +72.7% |
| 2023-08-08 beat | -0.07 | 0.06 | +187.6% | -17.3% | -34.2% | -4.8% | -10.2% |
| 2023-05-09 beat | -0.81 | -0.47 | +41.8% | +39.4% | +34.6% | +12.8% | +69.2% |
| 2023-02-14 beat | -0.47 | -0.25 | +47.2% | +9.9% | +28.1% | -14.2% | -29.5% |
| 2022-11-08 miss | -0.08 | -0.24 | -192.6% | -20.2% | -10.4% | +18.4% | +0.1% |
| 2022-08-08 miss | 0.08 | 0.01 | -86.9% | -12.5% | -11.8% | +27.5% | -5.9% |
| 2022-05-09 beat | 0.53 | 0.61 | +15.3% | -55.9% | -56.4% | +38.8% | +18.0% |
| 2022-02-15 beat | 0.51 | 0.89 | +75.2% | +25.7% | +35.7% | -11.1% | -15.2% |
| 2021-11-09 beat | 0.33 | 0.60 | +80.4% | -22.6% | -18.2% | -9.6% | -37.4% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.