Backtested and hypothetical results, shown for educational purposes only — not investment advice. Past performance does not indicate future results.
FM FMS — Stretched, weak edge$22.35 · 2026-09-11
FMS shows only a faint, unreliable daily reversal bias.
Current stretch: -1.8σ below the 50-day average — but the daily edge here is thin.
| Rule | Days held | Avg / day | Win rate | Total | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ■ After a DOWN close | 3,645 (48%) | +0.057% | 51.3% | +280% | +4.6% | 0.31 | -85.6% |
| ■ After an UP close | 3,755 (50%) | +0.016% | 48.4% | -10% | -0.3% | 0.09 | -84.2% |
| ■ Bottom 10% RSI(2) | 755 (10%) | +0.070% | 51.9% | +42% | +1.2% | 0.16 | -47.3% |
| ■ Top 10% RSI(2) | 755 (10%) | -0.076% | 45.7% | -51% | -2.3% | -0.20 | -67.3% |
How to read this ▾
Some assets mean-revert at short horizons (a sharp move tends to partly reverse); others trend (a move tends to continue). At the daily close-to-close horizon the reversal shows up cleanly and consistently in the broad equity indices and mostly breaks down elsewhere — commodities, crypto, and individual stocks carry their own momentum. The names above are the ones where it holds up.
RSI(2) is a 2-day momentum oscillator — below ~10 is short-term oversold, above ~90 overbought. Distance from the 50-day average is measured in standard deviations (z-score). Streak counts consecutive up or down closes. For each, we show what happened over the next 1–5 days, historically.
The strategy table pairs each dip-buy rule against its opposite — day-after-a-down-close vs day-after-an-up-close, and the bottom vs top RSI(2) decile. Both legs of a pair are held one day and trade a similar number of days, so raw returns compare fairly (unlike buy & hold, which wins on total return simply by always being invested). Avg / day — mean return on the days the rule is in the market — is the cleanest apples-to-apples number. Frictionless: no commissions or slippage. A character test, not a tradeable system. Past behaviour is not a forecast.