Backtested and hypothetical results, shown for educational purposes only — not investment advice. Past performance does not indicate future results.
IW IWM — Dip-buy setup$288.89 · 2026-09-11
IWM fades the prior day (mean-reverts) at the daily horizon.
A historically favourable dip-buy setup: -1.8σ below the 50-day average.
| Rule | Days held | Avg / day | Win rate | Total | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ■ After a DOWN close | 3,082 (47%) | +0.088% | 54.4% | +926% | +9.3% | 0.60 | -40.2% |
| ■ After an UP close | 3,509 (53%) | +0.004% | 52.0% | -19% | -0.8% | 0.03 | -60.6% |
| ■ Bottom 10% RSI(2) | 662 (10%) | +0.219% | 56.6% | +282% | +5.2% | 0.59 | -16.5% |
| ■ Top 10% RSI(2) | 662 (10%) | -0.083% | 49.4% | -45% | -2.2% | -0.36 | -50.0% |
How to read this ▾
Some assets mean-revert at short horizons (a sharp move tends to partly reverse); others trend (a move tends to continue). At the daily close-to-close horizon the reversal shows up cleanly and consistently in the broad equity indices and mostly breaks down elsewhere — commodities, crypto, and individual stocks carry their own momentum. The names above are the ones where it holds up.
RSI(2) is a 2-day momentum oscillator — below ~10 is short-term oversold, above ~90 overbought. Distance from the 50-day average is measured in standard deviations (z-score). Streak counts consecutive up or down closes. For each, we show what happened over the next 1–5 days, historically.
The strategy table pairs each dip-buy rule against its opposite — day-after-a-down-close vs day-after-an-up-close, and the bottom vs top RSI(2) decile. Both legs of a pair are held one day and trade a similar number of days, so raw returns compare fairly (unlike buy & hold, which wins on total return simply by always being invested). Avg / day — mean return on the days the rule is in the market — is the cleanest apples-to-apples number. Frictionless: no commissions or slippage. A character test, not a tradeable system. Past behaviour is not a forecast.