Backtested and hypothetical results, shown for educational purposes only — not investment advice. Past performance does not indicate future results.
RF RF — No setup$30.13 · 2026-09-11
RF shows only a faint, unreliable daily reversal bias.
Nothing stretched right now — no short-term setup.
| Rule | Days held | Avg / day | Win rate | Total | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ■ After a DOWN close | 4,927 (42%) | +0.106% | 48.8% | +3,549% | +8.0% | 0.42 | -64.6% |
| ■ After an UP close | 5,377 (46%) | +0.033% | 46.8% | +10% | +0.2% | 0.14 | -96.1% |
| ■ Bottom 10% RSI(2) | 1,172 (10%) | +0.157% | 43.5% | +321% | +3.1% | 0.30 | -44.3% |
| ■ Top 10% RSI(2) | 1,173 (10%) | +0.053% | 39.5% | +52% | +0.9% | 0.15 | -71.0% |
How to read this ▾
Some assets mean-revert at short horizons (a sharp move tends to partly reverse); others trend (a move tends to continue). At the daily close-to-close horizon the reversal shows up cleanly and consistently in the broad equity indices and mostly breaks down elsewhere — commodities, crypto, and individual stocks carry their own momentum. The names above are the ones where it holds up.
RSI(2) is a 2-day momentum oscillator — below ~10 is short-term oversold, above ~90 overbought. Distance from the 50-day average is measured in standard deviations (z-score). Streak counts consecutive up or down closes. For each, we show what happened over the next 1–5 days, historically.
The strategy table pairs each dip-buy rule against its opposite — day-after-a-down-close vs day-after-an-up-close, and the bottom vs top RSI(2) decile. Both legs of a pair are held one day and trade a similar number of days, so raw returns compare fairly (unlike buy & hold, which wins on total return simply by always being invested). Avg / day — mean return on the days the rule is in the market — is the cleanest apples-to-apples number. Frictionless: no commissions or slippage. A character test, not a tradeable system. Past behaviour is not a forecast.