Backtested and hypothetical results, shown for educational purposes only — not investment advice. Past performance does not indicate future results.
TF TFLO — Stretched, weak edge$50.57 · 2026-09-11
TFLO fades the prior day (mean-reverts) at the daily horizon.
Current stretch: RSI(2) at 100 is deep overbought — but the daily edge here is thin.
| Rule | Days held | Avg / day | Win rate | Total | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ■ After a DOWN close | 610 (19%) | +0.033% | 63.3% | +22% | +1.6% | 1.18 | -0.3% |
| ■ After an UP close | 1,400 (44%) | +0.001% | 38.0% | +2% | +0.1% | 0.37 | -6.4% |
| ■ Bottom 10% RSI(2) | 317 (10%) | +0.047% | 59.3% | +16% | +1.2% | 0.86 | -0.4% |
| ■ Top 10% RSI(2) | 319 (10%) | +0.014% | 58.3% | +4% | +0.4% | 2.28 | -0.3% |
How to read this ▾
Some assets mean-revert at short horizons (a sharp move tends to partly reverse); others trend (a move tends to continue). At the daily close-to-close horizon the reversal shows up cleanly and consistently in the broad equity indices and mostly breaks down elsewhere — commodities, crypto, and individual stocks carry their own momentum. The names above are the ones where it holds up.
RSI(2) is a 2-day momentum oscillator — below ~10 is short-term oversold, above ~90 overbought. Distance from the 50-day average is measured in standard deviations (z-score). Streak counts consecutive up or down closes. For each, we show what happened over the next 1–5 days, historically.
The strategy table pairs each dip-buy rule against its opposite — day-after-a-down-close vs day-after-an-up-close, and the bottom vs top RSI(2) decile. Both legs of a pair are held one day and trade a similar number of days, so raw returns compare fairly (unlike buy & hold, which wins on total return simply by always being invested). Avg / day — mean return on the days the rule is in the market — is the cleanest apples-to-apples number. Frictionless: no commissions or slippage. A character test, not a tradeable system. Past behaviour is not a forecast.