ALModel view — historical tendencies for the days ahead, not a forecast
Next 1 day
-0.1%
Next 1 week
+1.1%
Next 1 month
+1.1%
Seasonality
Bullish window historically
Next 30 days (to Nov 28): +4.9% median,
60% of the last 10 years finished up.
20-year seasonality chart →
Mean reversion
Deeply overbought — RSI(2) at 100
RSI(2) under 15 is oversold (this name has historically bounced); over 85 is overbought.
Its dip-buy edge in history is +0.07%/day.
Mean-reversion stats →
1-month breakdown —
Market · β 0.40 +1.1%
$29M/day volume
30% volatility
+26% 1-year
-40% from ATH
52-week range · 99% of the way up · -0% from the high
$41.49$65.24
Congressional trades in ALRM Full tracker →
1 member · 1 buys / 0 sells · $100K–$250K disclosed · latest filing Jul 29, 2019.
| BUY | $100K–$250K |
Earnings Full history →
Next report 2026-11-05 (Thursday, after close, in 7 days) · EPS est. 0.75.
1-day std dev
7.9%
Finished up
53%
Biggest pop
+24.1%
Biggest drop
-14.4%
Standard deviation of the close-to-close move over the last 45 reports. History, not a forecast.
| Reported | Est. | Actual | Surprise | Gap | Day 1 | Day 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | beat | 0.65 | 0.77 | +18.9% | +1.5% | +2.2% | -1.3% |
| 2026-05-07 | beat | 0.60 | 0.65 | +7.6% | +0.0% | +1.3% | -9.5% |
| 2026-02-19 | beat | 0.64 | 0.72 | +12.2% | +4.1% | +0.9% | +5.9% |
| 2025-11-06 | beat | 0.61 | 0.76 | +24.3% | +3.7% | +5.8% | +6.7% |
| 2025-08-07 | beat | 0.51 | 0.60 | +18.1% | +2.2% | +0.1% | +2.7% |
| 2025-05-08 | beat | 0.47 | 0.54 | +13.8% | -0.3% | +1.3% | +7.8% |
| 2025-02-20 | beat | 0.53 | 0.58 | +8.6% | +0.7% | -1.7% | -4.1% |
| 2024-11-07 | beat | 0.49 | 0.62 | +26.6% | +15.3% | +11.1% | +4.7% |
| 2024-08-08 | beat | 0.49 | 0.58 | +17.9% | -3.8% | -6.8% | -9.1% |
| 2024-05-09 | beat | 0.49 | 0.50 | +2.6% | -0.7% | -1.3% | +0.4% |
| 2024-02-22 | beat | 0.47 | 0.62 | +31.4% | +4.0% | +2.7% | +7.9% |
| 2023-11-09 | beat | 0.40 | 0.56 | +39.8% | +5.9% | +9.9% | +13.3% |
| 2023-08-09 | beat | 0.36 | 0.49 | +36.6% | +13.8% | +24.1% | +15.6% |
| 2023-05-10 | beat | 0.31 | 0.41 | +33.1% | +4.3% | +3.8% | +6.8% |
| 2023-02-23 | beat | 0.44 | 0.53 | +20.7% | -3.5% | -2.6% | -1.4% |
| 2022-11-08 | beat | 0.50 | 0.55 | +9.2% | -9.9% | -14.4% | -6.0% |
| 2022-08-09 | beat | 0.41 | 0.49 | +18.9% | +7.5% | +5.3% | +4.1% |
| 2022-05-05 | beat | 0.33 | 0.39 | +19.1% | -2.7% | -5.2% | -1.8% |
| 2022-02-24 | beat | 0.32 | 0.43 | +33.4% | -4.8% | -5.5% | -5.2% |
| 2021-11-04 | beat | 0.38 | 0.53 | +39.9% | +2.1% | +4.2% | -0.1% |
| 2021-08-05 | beat | 0.39 | 0.54 | +37.6% | +8.3% | +5.7% | -1.8% |
| 2021-05-04 | beat | 0.38 | 0.50 | +32.0% | +0.2% | -1.9% | -4.6% |
| 2021-02-25 | beat | 0.27 | 0.45 | +67.9% | +2.0% | -1.0% | -2.4% |
| 2020-11-05 | beat | 0.31 | 0.49 | +55.8% | +4.5% | +12.3% | +7.5% |
| 2020-08-05 | beat | 0.30 | 0.41 | +38.1% | +1.8% | -3.2% | -7.9% |
| 2020-05-07 | beat | 0.34 | 0.42 | +22.4% | +0.8% | +5.1% | +5.7% |
| 2020-02-25 | beat | 0.33 | 0.43 | +31.5% | +6.8% | +7.3% | +3.7% |
| 2019-11-05 | beat | 0.32 | 0.37 | +15.3% | +0.2% | -10.2% | -13.1% |
| 2019-08-08 | beat | 0.32 | 0.40 | +23.9% | +10.8% | -0.5% | -7.3% |
| 2019-05-09 | beat | 0.31 | 0.34 | +8.2% | -9.6% | -8.2% | -12.5% |
| 2019-02-28 | beat | 0.24 | 0.29 | +18.8% | -7.1% | -9.6% | -11.4% |
| 2018-11-07 | beat | 0.25 | 0.36 | +41.6% | +18.6% | +5.1% | +3.5% |
| 2018-08-07 | beat | 0.27 | 0.34 | +28.3% | +10.5% | +7.3% | +14.4% |
| 2018-05-03 | beat | 0.27 | 0.34 | +27.5% | +2.9% | -3.7% | -6.8% |
| 2018-02-27 | beat | 0.24 | 0.26 | +9.7% | -5.7% | -5.3% | -2.1% |
| 2017-11-08 | beat | 0.20 | 0.27 | +37.0% | -5.7% | -14.4% | -6.5% |
| 2017-08-08 | beat | 0.15 | 0.33 | +119.5% | +3.8% | +5.0% | +6.8% |
| 2017-05-09 | beat | 0.15 | 0.23 | +54.6% | +0.7% | +0.5% | -2.7% |
| 2017-03-15 | beat | 0.13 | 0.19 | +47.1% | +7.7% | +2.7% | +2.5% |
| 2016-11-14 | beat | 0.11 | 0.19 | +68.3% | +4.9% | -13.8% | -4.9% |
| 2016-08-15 | beat | 0.11 | 0.15 | +34.8% | -4.8% | -9.0% | -14.2% |
| 2016-05-10 | beat | 0.11 | 0.12 | +7.1% | -2.8% | -4.7% | -4.1% |
| 2016-02-25 | — | 0.14 | — | +16.0% | +12.8% | +18.5% | |
| 2015-11-10 | beat | 0.02 | 0.14 | +600.0% | +16.6% | +13.7% | +18.1% |
| 2015-08-06 | beat | 0.03 | 0.09 | +170.0% | +0.5% | -2.5% | -3.2% |
Not investment advice.
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