AXModel view — historical tendencies for the days ahead, not a forecast
Next 1 day
-0.1%
Next 1 week
-0.6%
Next 1 month
+1.5%
Seasonality
Bullish window historically
Next 30 days (to Nov 28): +8.0% median,
80% of the last 10 years finished up.
20-year seasonality chart →
Mean reversion
Neutral — RSI(2) at 34
RSI(2) under 15 is oversold (this name has historically bounced); over 85 is overbought.
Its dip-buy edge in history is -0.32%/day.
Mean-reversion stats →
1-month breakdown —
Market · β 0.56 +1.5% · Seasonal tilt (10y) +0.1%
$148M/day volume
44% volatility
+7% 1-year
-45% from ATH
52-week range · 15% of the way up · -45% from the high
$123.50$260.19
Congressional trades in AXSM Full tracker →
1 member · 1 buys / 0 sells · $15K–$50K disclosed · latest filing Jul 28, 2022.
| BUY | $15K–$50K |
Earnings Full history →
Next report 2026-11-02 (Monday, before open, in 4 days) · EPS est. -0.64.
1-day std dev
8.6%
Finished up
51%
Biggest pop
+9.4%
Biggest drop
-46.5%
Standard deviation of the close-to-close move over the last 43 reports. History, not a forecast.
| Reported | Est. | Actual | Surprise | Gap | Day 1 | Day 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | miss | -0.78 | -0.99 | -26.9% | +1.5% | +3.8% | +1.7% |
| 2026-05-04 | miss | -0.86 | -1.26 | -46.0% | +2.6% | +8.3% | +4.8% |
| 2026-02-23 | beat | -0.73 | -0.56 | +23.6% | -4.0% | -4.9% | -9.4% |
| 2025-11-03 | miss | -0.90 | -0.94 | -4.2% | -8.2% | +0.6% | +2.1% |
| 2025-08-04 | beat | -1.09 | -0.97 | +10.8% | +4.8% | +3.4% | +0.9% |
| 2025-05-05 | beat | -1.35 | -1.22 | +9.5% | +1.7% | +3.8% | -1.8% |
| 2025-02-18 | miss | -1.05 | -1.54 | -47.0% | -4.9% | -2.3% | -3.1% |
| 2024-11-12 | beat | -1.39 | -1.34 | +3.5% | +4.4% | +9.4% | +4.9% |
| 2024-08-05 | miss | -1.33 | -1.67 | -25.8% | -13.2% | -1.4% | +0.6% |
| 2024-05-06 | miss | -1.22 | -1.44 | -17.6% | +0.3% | +1.5% | +1.1% |
| 2024-02-20 | miss | -1.19 | -2.08 | -74.8% | -8.4% | -12.6% | -9.5% |
| 2023-11-06 | miss | -1.19 | -1.32 | -10.9% | -4.7% | -4.2% | -8.9% |
| 2023-08-07 | miss | -1.20 | -1.54 | -28.8% | +3.1% | -3.5% | -2.7% |
| 2023-05-09 | beat | -0.72 | -0.26 | +64.1% | +0.0% | -1.3% | -0.8% |
| 2023-02-27 | miss | -1.14 | -1.41 | -24.1% | +4.8% | +5.0% | +8.6% |
| 2022-11-07 | beat | -1.10 | -1.07 | +2.8% | -4.9% | -0.5% | -3.9% |
| 2022-08-09 | beat | -1.12 | -1.06 | +5.0% | -5.3% | +3.3% | +2.2% |
| 2022-05-02 | miss | -1.01 | -1.03 | -1.5% | -2.0% | +7.2% | -15.5% |
| 2022-03-01 | beat | -0.97 | -0.90 | +7.6% | -1.3% | +1.5% | +0.5% |
| 2021-11-08 | beat | -0.93 | -0.93 | +0.5% | -0.7% | +7.9% | -4.3% |
| 2021-08-09 | beat | -0.88 | -0.86 | +2.1% | -35.5% | -46.5% | -58.5% |
| 2021-05-10 | beat | -0.81 | -0.78 | +3.7% | -3.1% | +4.9% | +6.7% |
| 2021-03-01 | miss | -0.70 | -0.78 | -11.2% | +1.2% | +0.8% | -6.2% |
| 2020-11-05 | miss | -0.55 | -0.58 | -5.6% | +0.1% | -2.9% | +6.7% |
| 2020-08-10 | beat | -0.61 | -0.49 | +19.5% | +1.2% | +4.8% | +4.5% |
| 2020-05-08 | miss | -0.66 | -0.88 | -33.3% | +0.9% | +1.5% | -3.1% |
| 2020-03-12 | miss | -0.46 | -0.71 | -53.4% | -17.2% | -12.0% | -36.9% |
| 2019-11-07 | miss | -0.39 | -0.56 | -42.5% | -6.8% | -9.7% | +2.2% |
| 2019-08-08 | miss | -0.31 | -0.41 | -30.2% | +1.9% | +2.4% | -8.2% |
| 2019-05-09 | miss | -0.30 | -0.32 | -5.8% | -4.9% | +0.9% | +19.1% |
| 2019-03-14 | miss | -0.30 | -0.32 | -9.1% | -2.9% | +2.8% | +27.1% |
| 2018-11-09 | miss | -0.28 | -0.31 | -10.7% | -1.5% | -1.3% | -28.1% |
| 2018-08-08 | miss | -0.27 | -0.32 | -17.1% | -6.7% | -2.9% | -12.4% |
| 2018-05-08 | miss | -0.28 | -0.29 | -4.7% | +3.0% | -1.5% | +6.0% |
| 2018-03-07 | beat | -0.31 | -0.28 | +11.1% | -0.9% | +4.7% | +4.7% |
| 2017-11-08 | beat | -0.34 | -0.27 | +20.6% | -1.0% | -5.2% | +3.1% |
| 2017-08-09 | beat | -0.34 | -0.30 | +10.9% | +7.6% | -1.7% | -16.0% |
| 2017-05-09 | miss | -0.40 | -0.41 | -3.4% | +1.2% | +0.0% | -2.4% |
| 2017-03-07 | beat | -0.42 | -0.38 | +8.8% | +4.5% | +5.6% | +11.2% |
| 2016-11-14 | beat | -0.39 | -0.38 | +2.6% | -0.8% | -2.0% | -2.0% |
| 2016-08-09 | beat | -0.39 | -0.36 | +7.7% | -0.4% | -0.3% | -4.2% |
| 2016-05-11 | miss | -0.28 | -0.31 | -12.7% | -1.2% | +1.9% | -10.4% |
| 2016-03-24 | beat | -0.22 | -0.11 | +49.0% | -0.1% | -4.1% | +9.3% |
Not investment advice.
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