BHModel view — historical tendencies for the days ahead, not a forecast
Next 1 day
-0.1%
Next 1 week
-0.4%
Next 1 month
+0.0%
Seasonality
Mildly positive window
Next 30 days (to Dec 4): +1.9% median,
50% of the last 8 years finished up.
20-year seasonality chart →
Mean reversion
Oversold — RSI(2) at 15
RSI(2) under 15 is oversold (this name has historically bounced); over 85 is overbought.
Its dip-buy edge in history is -0.17%/day.
Mean-reversion stats →
1-month breakdown —
Market · β -0.04 -0.1% · Seasonal tilt (8y) +0.1%
$37M/day volume
32% volatility
-25% 1-year
-43% from ATH
52-week range · 2% of the way up · -36% from the high
$41.98$66.80
Congressional trades in BHF Full tracker →
7 members · 1 buys / 8 sells · $39K–$235K disclosed · latest filing May 12, 2023.
| BUY | $15K–$50K | |
| SELL | $15K–$50K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K | |
| EXCHANGE | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K | |
| EXCHANGE | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K |
Earnings Full history →
Next report 2026-11-05 (Thursday, after close, in 1 day) · EPS est. 5.16.
1-day std dev
5.6%
Finished up
35%
Biggest pop
+13.9%
Biggest drop
-12.8%
Standard deviation of the close-to-close move over the last 37 reports. History, not a forecast.
| Reported | Est. | Actual | Surprise | Gap | Day 1 | Day 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | miss | 4.77 | 4.45 | -6.7% | +0.4% | +0.5% | -3.8% |
| 2026-05-06 | miss | 4.47 | 4.35 | -2.6% | -0.6% | -1.4% | -1.8% |
| 2026-02-23 | miss | 5.19 | 3.70 | -28.7% | -1.1% | -1.1% | -4.4% |
| 2025-11-06 | beat | 4.09 | 7.89 | +92.8% | +0.0% | +0.5% | +0.1% |
| 2025-08-07 | miss | 4.39 | 3.43 | -21.8% | -4.8% | -3.4% | -0.8% |
| 2025-05-08 | miss | 3.47 | -5.04 | -245.3% | -3.0% | +1.5% | +5.4% |
| 2025-02-11 | beat | 4.31 | 5.07 | +17.7% | +0.8% | +0.0% | +5.8% |
| 2024-11-07 | miss | 3.02 | 2.47 | -18.3% | +3.5% | -1.1% | -0.2% |
| 2024-08-07 | beat | 4.37 | 5.57 | +27.3% | -6.2% | -5.0% | -5.0% |
| 2024-05-07 | beat | 3.87 | 4.25 | +9.8% | -3.6% | -10.4% | -10.6% |
| 2024-02-12 | miss | 3.69 | 2.92 | -20.8% | -13.6% | -12.8% | -10.6% |
| 2023-11-07 | beat | 3.92 | 4.18 | +6.6% | +4.1% | -2.7% | +3.1% |
| 2023-08-08 | beat | 3.38 | 4.13 | +22.3% | +0.0% | -7.1% | -12.7% |
| 2023-05-08 | miss | 3.21 | 2.86 | -11.0% | -3.6% | -3.6% | -8.1% |
| 2023-02-09 | beat | 2.31 | 3.46 | +49.6% | -1.2% | +0.0% | +2.3% |
| 2022-11-07 | beat | 1.32 | 1.35 | +2.3% | -3.4% | -7.4% | -3.4% |
| 2022-08-05 | miss | 2.52 | 0.32 | -87.3% | +1.1% | +1.7% | +10.6% |
| 2022-05-09 | beat | 3.46 | 3.79 | +9.5% | -1.2% | -7.6% | -4.3% |
| 2022-02-10 | beat | 3.52 | 4.02 | +14.1% | +0.4% | -4.7% | -8.5% |
| 2021-11-04 | beat | 3.53 | 5.41 | +53.3% | +6.6% | +2.5% | +3.7% |
| 2021-08-05 | beat | 3.37 | 5.05 | +49.7% | +1.1% | +7.0% | +9.7% |
| 2021-05-10 | beat | 2.50 | 4.36 | +74.5% | -3.4% | -0.9% | +0.0% |
| 2021-02-10 | miss | 2.74 | 2.10 | -23.5% | -2.8% | -3.3% | -3.5% |
| 2020-11-05 | miss | 2.44 | -7.43 | -405.0% | -4.1% | -5.1% | +2.1% |
| 2020-08-06 | miss | 1.26 | 0.11 | -91.3% | -7.5% | +7.1% | +12.2% |
| 2020-05-11 | beat | 1.74 | 2.01 | +15.6% | +15.7% | -4.0% | +1.4% |
| 2020-02-10 | beat | 2.33 | 2.61 | +12.2% | +5.7% | +10.7% | +11.4% |
| 2019-11-04 | miss | 2.19 | -1.52 | -169.4% | +1.7% | +2.4% | +2.9% |
| 2019-08-05 | miss | 2.27 | 2.19 | -3.5% | +8.7% | +5.7% | +3.9% |
| 2019-05-06 | miss | 2.07 | 1.98 | -4.4% | -8.9% | -6.2% | -11.7% |
| 2019-02-11 | miss | 1.63 | 1.56 | -4.5% | +7.0% | +13.9% | +21.4% |
| 2018-11-05 | beat | 2.06 | 2.23 | +8.2% | +1.9% | +3.3% | -3.3% |
| 2018-08-06 | miss | 1.99 | 1.27 | -36.2% | -0.9% | -1.5% | -7.0% |
| 2018-05-07 | beat | 1.98 | 2.36 | +19.1% | -0.4% | -0.1% | -3.7% |
| 2018-02-12 | miss | 2.11 | 1.64 | -22.4% | -9.0% | -8.0% | -1.4% |
| 2017-11-01 | miss | 2.14 | -5.64 | -363.3% | -7.3% | -4.5% | -8.9% |
| 2017-08-10 | beat | 2.19 | 2.71 | +23.6% | -0.3% | +3.1% | -1.3% |
Not investment advice.
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