MFG (Mizuho Financial Group, Inc.) — Congressional Trades, Short Interest & Seasonality

Model view — historical tendencies for the days ahead, not a forecast

Next 1 day

+0.4%

Next 1 week

+1.1%

Next 1 month

+2.8%

Seasonality

Mildly positive window

Next 30 days (to Nov 29): +0.9% median, 53% of the last 19 years finished up.

Mean reversion

Deeply overbought — RSI(2) at 92

RSI(2) under 15 is oversold (this name has historically bounced); over 85 is overbought. Its dip-buy edge in history is -0.07%/day.

1-month breakdown — Market · β 1.24 +3.5% · Seasonal tilt -0.7%

$123.7B market cap (#249 US) $37M/day volume 33% volatility +49% 1-year -35% from ATH

52-week range · 70% of the way up · -13% from the high

$6.45$11.49

Congressional trades in MFG Full tracker →

3 members · 3 buys / 2 sells · $47K–$180K disclosed · latest filing Jul 21, 2026.

Next report 2026-11-13 (Friday, after close, in 15 days) · EPS est. 0.17.

1-day std dev

2.5%

Finished up

71%

Biggest pop

+6.9%

Biggest drop

-1.9%

Standard deviation of the close-to-close move over the last 17 reports. History, not a forecast.

Reported		Est.	Actual	Surprise	Gap	Day 1	Day 5
2026-07-30	beat	0.17	0.22	+28.3%	-0.5%	+5.5%	+9.0%
2026-05-15	beat	0.07	0.12	+63.1%	-3.0%	-1.9%	+5.2%
2026-02-02	beat	0.14	0.17	+22.0%	+0.3%	+2.4%	+13.6%
2025-11-14	beat	0.17	0.21	+24.8%	+1.2%	+3.8%	-2.7%
2025-07-31	beat	0.15	0.16	+6.0%	+1.2%	+0.2%	+4.2%
2025-05-15	beat	—	0.02	+389.5%	-1.0%	-0.2%	+2.3%
2025-02-03	beat	0.10	0.15	+43.3%	+0.9%	+1.8%	-0.4%
2024-11-14	beat	0.11	0.14	+27.2%	+2.7%	+5.3%	+11.1%
2024-07-31	beat	0.11	0.15	+36.8%	+6.9%	+6.9%	-13.2%
2023-07-31	beat	0.09	0.14	+58.8%	+0.6%	+0.3%	-2.0%
2023-05-15	miss	0.06	0.01	-87.7%	+0.7%	+0.7%	-0.3%
2023-02-02	beat	0.07	0.13	+74.5%	-1.3%	+0.0%	-0.6%
2022-11-14	beat	0.09	0.10	+11.5%	+0.0%	-1.8%	+0.9%
2022-07-29	beat	0.07	0.09	+42.9%	+0.0%	+2.1%	-1.3%
2022-05-13	beat	0.04	0.16	+328.0%	+1.3%	+1.3%	+0.0%
2022-02-02	miss	0.09	0.06	-26.8%	+0.0%	-0.4%	+4.3%
2021-11-12	beat	0.08	0.09	+18.5%	+1.5%	+1.1%	-5.9%