MTModel view — historical tendencies for the days ahead, not a forecast
Next 1 day
+0.1%
Next 1 week
+0.7%
Next 1 month
+1.1%
Seasonality
Bullish window historically
Next 30 days (to Nov 29): +1.5% median,
62% of the last 45 years finished up.
20-year seasonality chart →
Mean reversion
Neutral — RSI(2) at 35
RSI(2) under 15 is oversold (this name has historically bounced); over 85 is overbought.
Its dip-buy edge in history is +0.02%/day.
Mean-reversion stats →
1-month breakdown —
Market · β 0.58 +1.7% · Seasonal tilt -0.6%
$36.9B market cap (#388 US)
$217M/day volume
21% volatility
+22% 1-year
-14% from ATH
52-week range · 54% of the way up · -14% from the high
$179.75$255.95
Congressional trades in MTB Full tracker →
9 members · 9 buys / 10 sells · $96K–$440K disclosed · latest filing Dec 15, 2025.
| BUY | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K | |
| BUY | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $50K–$100K | |
| BUY | $1K–$15K | |
| BUY | $1K–$15K | |
| BUY | $15K–$50K | |
| BUY | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $15K–$50K | |
| BUY | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K | |
| BUY | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K | |
| BUY | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K |
Earnings Full history →
Next report 2027-01-19 (Tuesday, before open, in 81 days) · EPS est. 4.98.
1-day std dev
3.8%
Finished up
55%
Biggest pop
+8.8%
Biggest drop
-13.9%
Standard deviation of the close-to-close move over the last 60 reports. History, not a forecast.
| Reported | Est. | Actual | Surprise | Gap | Day 1 | Day 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | beat | 4.92 | 5.04 | +2.4% | +1.3% | -1.5% | +1.4% |
| 2026-07-15 | beat | 4.66 | 5.32 | +14.1% | +0.8% | +2.8% | +3.7% |
| 2026-04-15 | beat | 4.02 | 4.13 | +2.6% | +0.4% | -1.5% | -1.3% |
| 2026-01-16 | beat | 4.47 | 4.67 | +4.5% | +0.0% | -0.1% | +0.8% |
| 2025-10-16 | beat | 4.39 | 4.82 | +9.8% | +0.0% | -3.5% | -2.1% |
| 2025-07-16 | beat | 4.01 | 4.24 | +5.7% | +0.9% | -2.4% | -0.7% |
| 2025-04-14 | miss | 3.40 | 3.32 | -2.3% | -0.6% | +0.3% | +2.6% |
| 2025-01-16 | beat | 3.74 | 3.77 | +1.0% | -2.6% | -2.4% | -1.0% |
| 2024-10-17 | beat | 3.62 | 4.03 | +11.4% | +4.7% | +5.0% | +2.7% |
| 2024-07-18 | beat | 3.49 | 3.79 | +8.6% | +5.7% | +1.7% | +5.4% |
| 2024-04-15 | miss | 3.12 | 3.01 | -3.5% | +4.0% | +4.7% | +8.3% |
| 2024-01-18 | miss | 3.67 | 3.60 | -1.8% | +2.0% | +1.5% | +8.5% |
| 2023-10-18 | beat | 3.92 | 3.98 | +1.5% | +0.0% | -2.5% | -10.2% |
| 2023-07-19 | beat | 4.03 | 4.11 | +1.9% | +2.1% | +2.5% | +4.2% |
| 2023-04-17 | beat | 3.96 | 4.01 | +1.2% | -0.5% | +7.8% | +6.8% |
| 2023-01-19 | beat | 4.44 | 4.51 | +1.5% | +1.6% | +5.5% | +6.3% |
| 2022-10-19 | miss | 4.26 | 3.77 | -11.5% | -9.9% | -13.9% | -12.9% |
| 2022-07-20 | miss | 3.15 | 3.12 | -0.9% | -3.0% | +0.5% | +5.0% |
| 2022-04-20 | beat | 2.34 | 2.73 | +16.7% | +1.2% | +8.8% | +5.7% |
| 2022-01-20 | beat | 3.26 | 3.49 | +7.0% | +1.6% | -5.4% | -4.0% |
| 2021-10-20 | beat | 3.50 | 5.06 | +44.7% | +0.0% | +5.8% | -1.7% |
| 2021-07-21 | miss | 3.54 | 3.49 | -1.3% | -3.0% | -1.5% | -0.4% |
| 2021-04-19 | beat | 2.98 | 3.40 | +14.1% | +0.0% | +0.7% | +1.2% |
| 2021-01-21 | beat | 3.04 | 3.51 | +15.5% | -0.7% | +0.5% | -4.4% |
| 2020-10-22 | beat | 2.53 | 2.74 | +8.0% | +0.4% | +5.7% | +0.5% |
| 2020-07-23 | miss | 1.86 | 1.70 | -8.8% | +0.0% | +1.5% | +2.3% |
| 2020-04-20 | miss | 2.51 | 2.06 | -18.2% | +1.9% | +0.1% | +4.6% |
| 2020-01-23 | beat | 3.46 | 3.64 | +5.1% | +1.6% | +5.3% | +5.4% |
| 2019-10-17 | miss | 3.59 | 3.53 | -1.7% | -4.3% | -4.3% | -1.7% |
| 2019-07-18 | miss | 3.68 | 3.61 | -1.9% | -2.6% | -4.5% | -4.2% |
| 2019-04-15 | beat | 3.29 | 3.35 | +1.7% | -0.8% | -2.4% | -0.4% |
| 2019-01-17 | beat | 3.50 | 3.73 | +6.8% | +2.9% | +5.7% | +9.0% |
| 2018-10-17 | beat | 3.35 | 3.55 | +6.1% | +0.3% | +2.0% | -2.6% |
| 2018-07-18 | beat | 3.16 | 3.25 | +2.7% | -0.3% | +3.5% | +2.2% |
| 2018-04-16 | beat | 2.77 | 2.84 | +2.6% | +1.0% | -0.9% | -0.6% |
| 2018-01-18 | beat | 2.40 | 2.66 | +10.9% | +0.4% | +3.9% | +4.7% |
| 2017-10-18 | miss | 2.40 | 2.21 | -8.0% | -0.4% | -2.1% | +1.0% |
| 2017-07-19 | beat | 2.25 | 2.35 | +4.4% | +0.8% | -1.8% | -4.5% |
| 2017-04-17 | beat | 1.94 | 2.12 | +9.1% | +1.1% | +3.9% | +6.1% |
| 2017-01-19 | miss | 2.03 | 1.98 | -2.6% | +0.2% | +0.5% | +5.8% |
| 2016-10-19 | miss | 2.04 | 1.99 | -2.4% | +0.8% | +1.9% | +4.3% |
| 2016-07-20 | miss | 2.07 | 2.03 | -1.8% | -0.2% | -4.1% | -3.2% |
| 2016-04-18 | miss | 1.89 | 1.82 | -3.7% | -0.4% | +0.9% | +3.6% |
| 2016-01-19 | beat | 1.97 | 2.05 | +4.1% | +1.1% | +1.8% | +1.1% |
| 2015-10-19 | miss | 2.00 | 1.93 | -3.5% | +0.2% | -3.1% | +5.3% |
| 2015-07-16 | beat | 1.98 | 1.99 | +0.4% | -0.7% | +2.2% | +3.4% |
| 2015-04-20 | miss | 1.76 | 1.65 | -6.3% | -0.1% | -1.3% | -2.0% |
| 2015-01-20 | miss | 1.94 | 1.92 | -1.0% | +0.2% | -1.9% | +1.0% |
| 2014-10-17 | miss | 1.98 | 1.91 | -3.7% | -1.9% | -2.8% | +0.2% |
| 2014-07-17 | beat | 1.90 | 1.98 | +4.1% | +0.4% | -0.3% | +1.1% |
| 2014-05-08 | miss | 1.63 | 1.61 | -1.4% | +0.0% | +0.4% | -2.0% |
| 2014-01-17 | miss | 1.92 | 1.74 | -9.4% | -0.6% | -2.3% | -3.5% |
| 2013-10-17 | beat | 2.08 | 2.11 | +1.5% | -0.9% | -3.0% | -3.2% |
| 2013-07-17 | beat | 2.09 | 2.17 | +3.9% | +0.6% | +0.3% | +0.7% |
| 2013-04-15 | miss | 1.98 | 1.98 | -0.2% | -0.2% | -1.9% | -1.6% |
| 2013-01-16 | miss | 2.16 | 2.16 | -0.1% | +0.8% | -0.5% | +0.6% |
| 2012-10-17 | beat | 1.85 | 2.17 | +17.5% | +1.7% | +5.8% | +7.2% |
| 2012-07-17 | beat | 1.68 | 1.71 | +1.9% | +0.3% | +2.6% | +1.1% |
| 2012-04-16 | beat | 1.49 | 1.50 | +0.7% | +1.0% | +1.4% | +1.6% |
| 2012-01-17 | miss | 1.52 | 1.04 | -31.5% | -2.0% | -1.6% | -0.8% |
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