MTModel view — historical tendencies for the days ahead, not a forecast
Next 1 day
+0.1%
Next 1 week
-1.3%
Next 1 month
-2.1%
Seasonality
Mildly positive window
Next 30 days (to Nov 29): +1.3% median,
54% of the last 13 years finished up.
20-year seasonality chart →
Mean reversion
Neutral — RSI(2) at 67
RSI(2) under 15 is oversold (this name has historically bounced); over 85 is overbought.
Its dip-buy edge in history is +0.02%/day.
Mean-reversion stats →
1-month breakdown —
Market · β -0.75 -2.1% · Seasonal tilt +0.0%
$76M/day volume
41% volatility
+53% 1-year
-19% from ATH
52-week range · 76% of the way up · -10% from the high
$37.14$66.84
Congressional trades in MTDR Full tracker →
2 members · 3 buys / 4 sells · $21K–$140K disclosed · latest filing Feb 13, 2026.
| SELL | $15K–$50K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K | |
| BUY | $1K–$15K | |
| BUY | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K | |
| BUY | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K |
Earnings Full history →
Next report 2026-11-03 (Tuesday, after close, in 4 days) · EPS est. 1.78.
1-day std dev
4.9%
Finished up
41%
Biggest pop
+14.3%
Biggest drop
-14.7%
Standard deviation of the close-to-close move over the last 59 reports. History, not a forecast.
| Reported | Est. | Actual | Surprise | Gap | Day 1 | Day 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | beat | 2.09 | 2.61 | +24.6% | +5.9% | +3.5% | +9.7% |
| 2026-05-06 | beat | 1.26 | 1.53 | +21.4% | +0.9% | -3.8% | +0.3% |
| 2026-02-24 | beat | 0.76 | 0.87 | +15.1% | -0.7% | -1.5% | +5.9% |
| 2025-10-21 | beat | 1.23 | 1.36 | +11.0% | -8.1% | -9.6% | -9.6% |
| 2025-07-22 | beat | 1.41 | 1.53 | +8.2% | -3.5% | -1.2% | +0.6% |
| 2025-04-23 | beat | 1.78 | 1.99 | +11.6% | +5.9% | -0.2% | -0.9% |
| 2025-02-18 | beat | 1.75 | 1.83 | +4.7% | -0.6% | -2.0% | -9.8% |
| 2024-10-22 | beat | 1.65 | 1.89 | +14.7% | +1.2% | +0.9% | +2.8% |
| 2024-07-23 | beat | 1.74 | 2.05 | +18.0% | +4.9% | +1.2% | +0.9% |
| 2024-04-23 | beat | 1.52 | 1.71 | +12.7% | +3.6% | +0.2% | -6.2% |
| 2024-02-20 | beat | 1.85 | 1.99 | +7.6% | +1.1% | +3.1% | +6.7% |
| 2023-10-24 | beat | 1.66 | 1.86 | +11.8% | +2.6% | -2.2% | -3.1% |
| 2023-07-25 | beat | 1.34 | 1.42 | +6.2% | -1.8% | -6.7% | -2.1% |
| 2023-04-25 | beat | 1.26 | 1.50 | +18.9% | +1.0% | -3.5% | -11.8% |
| 2023-02-21 | beat | 2.00 | 2.08 | +3.8% | -6.1% | -9.8% | -4.7% |
| 2022-10-25 | beat | 2.53 | 2.68 | +6.0% | -0.4% | +0.5% | -0.6% |
| 2022-07-26 | beat | 3.13 | 3.47 | +10.8% | +0.4% | +8.6% | +7.6% |
| 2022-04-26 | beat | 2.06 | 2.32 | +12.8% | +2.4% | -1.2% | +7.8% |
| 2022-02-22 | beat | 1.08 | 1.26 | +16.5% | +5.2% | +1.0% | +18.8% |
| 2021-10-26 | beat | 1.00 | 1.25 | +25.6% | +0.2% | -4.2% | -7.9% |
| 2021-07-27 | beat | 0.79 | 1.02 | +29.3% | +1.5% | +4.6% | -8.4% |
| 2021-04-28 | beat | 0.42 | 0.71 | +67.9% | +2.1% | +6.1% | +9.3% |
| 2021-02-23 | beat | 0.12 | 0.27 | +123.5% | -9.7% | -0.5% | +7.9% |
| 2020-10-27 | beat | -0.07 | 0.10 | +240.9% | -4.0% | -14.7% | -15.1% |
| 2020-07-28 | beat | -0.15 | -0.03 | +80.5% | -0.2% | +3.2% | +4.7% |
| 2020-04-29 | beat | 0.01 | 0.20 | +1624.1% | +9.7% | +5.1% | +0.7% |
| 2020-02-25 | beat | 0.30 | 0.39 | +29.7% | +4.0% | -1.0% | -10.1% |
| 2019-10-29 | beat | 0.22 | 0.32 | +44.9% | +3.2% | -6.0% | +1.4% |
| 2019-07-31 | beat | 0.20 | 0.30 | +49.0% | -0.2% | -3.5% | -14.0% |
| 2019-05-01 | beat | 0.16 | 0.19 | +15.3% | -1.0% | -1.6% | +6.4% |
| 2019-02-26 | beat | 0.27 | 0.37 | +38.5% | +8.0% | +6.0% | -2.5% |
| 2018-10-31 | beat | 0.37 | 0.48 | +31.0% | +1.8% | +0.3% | -6.4% |
| 2018-08-01 | beat | 0.33 | 0.41 | +25.5% | -3.1% | -1.2% | -3.6% |
| 2018-05-02 | beat | 0.33 | 0.36 | +10.6% | -1.2% | -4.9% | +4.7% |
| 2018-02-21 | beat | 0.22 | 0.25 | +13.4% | -2.3% | +1.6% | +0.6% |
| 2017-11-06 | beat | 0.11 | 0.18 | +69.9% | +1.3% | +0.5% | -1.7% |
| 2017-08-02 | miss | 0.11 | 0.11 | -0.3% | +0.9% | -9.1% | +0.5% |
| 2017-05-03 | beat | 0.10 | 0.17 | +75.6% | +1.5% | +1.0% | +8.5% |
| 2017-02-22 | beat | 0.07 | 0.08 | +13.0% | -0.1% | -1.0% | -5.8% |
| 2016-11-01 | beat | -0.01 | 0.06 | +857.6% | -0.7% | -5.9% | +1.1% |
| 2016-08-03 | beat | -0.10 | -0.01 | +90.4% | -0.3% | +5.7% | +14.4% |
| 2016-05-03 | beat | -0.18 | -0.16 | +9.9% | -2.5% | -5.7% | +2.0% |
| 2016-02-24 | beat | 0.02 | 0.03 | +83.4% | +0.2% | +1.0% | +21.8% |
| 2015-11-04 | beat | -0.02 | 0.03 | +221.4% | -3.3% | +0.6% | -5.7% |
| 2015-08-04 | beat | -0.03 | 0.05 | +276.5% | +0.1% | -1.9% | +4.9% |
| 2015-05-06 | miss | 0.01 | 0.01 | -9.1% | -1.8% | -3.9% | -2.7% |
| 2015-03-02 | beat | 0.19 | 0.20 | +1.9% | +4.9% | +4.9% | -4.1% |
| 2014-11-05 | miss | 0.31 | 0.26 | -16.0% | -4.2% | -1.5% | -2.3% |
| 2014-08-06 | beat | 0.30 | 0.31 | +4.6% | +0.6% | -2.0% | -5.1% |
| 2014-05-06 | miss | 0.28 | 0.28 | -2.0% | +1.2% | -6.3% | -10.9% |
| 2014-03-12 | beat | 0.27 | 0.53 | +98.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | +4.8% |
| 2013-11-06 | beat | 0.33 | 0.49 | +48.2% | -0.6% | +5.0% | +20.4% |
| 2013-08-07 | beat | 0.12 | 0.32 | +158.8% | +3.3% | +14.3% | +17.8% |
| 2013-05-08 | beat | 0.10 | 0.19 | +84.9% | -9.6% | -2.7% | -1.7% |
| 2013-03-13 | beat | 0.13 | 0.17 | +35.3% | +2.2% | +9.7% | +9.7% |
| 2012-11-12 | beat | 0.10 | 0.12 | +19.6% | -1.1% | -1.8% | +1.3% |
| 2012-08-14 | miss | 0.23 | 0.09 | -61.1% | -0.3% | -3.7% | +3.7% |
| 2012-05-14 | miss | 0.18 | 0.11 | -36.6% | -5.9% | -2.5% | -9.0% |
| 2012-03-23 | miss | 0.04 | 0.02 | -44.9% | +0.0% | -0.2% | -3.1% |
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long
53.96
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long
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