NVModel view — historical tendencies for the days ahead, not a forecast
Next 1 day
-0.6%
Next 1 week
+1.1%
Next 1 month
-0.1%
Seasonality
Bullish window historically
Next 30 days (to Nov 29): +2.1% median,
62% of the last 40 years finished up.
20-year seasonality chart →
Mean reversion
Overbought — RSI(2) at 84
RSI(2) under 15 is oversold (this name has historically bounced); over 85 is overbought.
Its dip-buy edge in history is -0.41%/day.
Mean-reversion stats →
1-month breakdown —
Market · β 0.50 +1.4% · Seasonal tilt -1.5%
$18.4B market cap (#420 US)
$283M/day volume
28% volatility
-19% 1-year
-40% from ATH
52-week range · 19% of the way up · -27% from the high
$5501.01$8200.00
Congressional trades in NVR Full tracker →
4 members · 2 buys / 3 sells · $5K–$75K disclosed · latest filing Apr 21, 2026.
| BUY | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K | |
| BUY | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K |
Earnings Full history →
Next report 2027-01-27 (Wednesday, before open, in 89 days) · EPS est. 98.16.
1-day std dev
4.5%
Finished up
47%
Biggest pop
+10.7%
Biggest drop
-14.0%
Standard deviation of the close-to-close move over the last 60 reports. History, not a forecast.
| Reported | Est. | Actual | Surprise | Gap | Day 1 | Day 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | miss | 102.77 | 89.45 | -13.0% | -2.4% | +3.6% | — |
| 2026-07-23 | miss | 89.98 | 83.96 | -6.7% | -2.7% | -3.1% | -1.0% |
| 2026-04-22 | miss | 79.20 | 67.76 | -14.4% | -4.2% | -4.7% | -10.5% |
| 2026-01-28 | beat | 105.90 | 121.54 | +14.8% | +1.3% | +1.7% | +7.0% |
| 2025-10-22 | beat | 109.36 | 112.33 | +2.7% | -0.8% | -1.2% | -5.9% |
| 2025-07-23 | beat | 106.20 | 108.54 | +2.2% | +1.1% | -0.1% | -3.5% |
| 2025-04-22 | miss | 106.07 | 94.83 | -10.6% | -1.9% | +0.5% | -0.3% |
| 2025-01-28 | beat | 129.35 | 139.93 | +8.2% | +1.1% | -3.8% | -7.1% |
| 2024-10-22 | miss | 131.00 | 130.50 | -0.4% | -0.6% | -2.3% | -5.3% |
| 2024-07-23 | miss | 121.21 | 120.69 | -0.4% | -1.5% | -0.5% | +0.2% |
| 2024-04-23 | beat | 103.97 | 116.41 | +12.0% | +0.3% | +0.4% | -4.7% |
| 2024-01-30 | beat | 121.50 | 121.56 | +0.1% | +0.3% | +0.2% | +3.2% |
| 2023-10-24 | beat | 115.60 | 125.26 | +8.3% | +0.0% | -2.2% | -1.7% |
| 2023-07-25 | beat | 101.50 | 116.54 | +14.8% | -0.3% | +2.1% | +1.5% |
| 2023-04-25 | beat | 88.96 | 99.89 | +12.3% | +0.2% | -3.6% | -1.4% |
| 2023-01-31 | beat | 98.88 | 133.44 | +35.0% | +3.5% | +5.0% | +2.9% |
| 2022-10-25 | miss | 121.71 | 118.51 | -2.6% | +0.1% | +5.7% | +5.0% |
| 2022-07-26 | miss | 126.82 | 123.65 | -2.5% | -0.6% | -2.3% | -4.9% |
| 2022-04-26 | beat | 96.94 | 116.56 | +20.2% | +1.7% | +1.4% | +2.8% |
| 2022-02-01 | miss | 99.77 | 89.09 | -10.7% | -1.1% | +0.7% | -0.5% |
| 2021-10-21 | miss | 88.98 | 86.44 | -2.9% | -0.6% | -3.0% | -3.0% |
| 2021-07-21 | beat | 72.43 | 82.45 | +13.8% | +0.0% | -0.1% | +3.4% |
| 2021-04-21 | miss | 65.08 | 63.21 | -2.9% | -0.5% | -2.2% | +2.0% |
| 2021-01-28 | miss | 79.82 | 76.93 | -3.6% | +0.6% | -0.4% | +0.4% |
| 2020-10-20 | beat | 60.22 | 65.11 | +8.1% | +4.7% | +3.5% | -5.9% |
| 2020-07-22 | miss | 43.93 | 42.50 | -3.3% | +4.1% | +10.7% | +16.6% |
| 2020-04-23 | miss | 45.61 | 44.96 | -1.4% | -1.3% | -3.6% | +8.9% |
| 2020-01-28 | beat | 59.00 | 64.41 | +9.2% | -0.7% | -3.3% | -4.4% |
| 2019-10-18 | beat | 51.52 | 56.11 | +8.9% | -0.1% | +3.0% | -1.4% |
| 2019-07-19 | beat | 44.87 | 53.09 | +18.3% | +1.2% | +0.3% | -5.6% |
| 2019-04-22 | beat | 34.45 | 47.64 | +38.3% | +1.5% | +6.1% | +1.6% |
| 2019-01-25 | beat | 49.62 | 58.57 | +18.0% | +3.0% | -0.2% | +4.5% |
| 2018-10-18 | miss | 50.94 | 48.28 | -5.2% | -3.3% | -3.8% | -3.8% |
| 2018-07-20 | beat | 47.21 | 49.05 | +3.9% | -2.8% | -8.3% | -11.5% |
| 2018-04-19 | beat | 31.79 | 39.34 | +23.7% | +3.6% | +0.4% | +3.4% |
| 2018-01-25 | miss | 48.04 | 43.41 | -9.6% | -4.7% | -6.6% | -12.3% |
| 2017-10-19 | beat | 36.07 | 38.02 | +5.4% | +3.1% | +7.8% | +10.4% |
| 2017-07-21 | beat | 28.92 | 35.19 | +21.7% | +3.4% | +8.2% | +7.3% |
| 2017-04-20 | beat | 20.81 | 25.12 | +20.7% | -1.3% | -4.3% | -2.4% |
| 2017-01-25 | beat | 33.09 | 37.80 | +14.2% | +1.4% | +10.6% | +9.2% |
| 2016-10-20 | miss | 29.89 | 28.46 | -4.8% | -1.5% | -2.6% | -6.1% |
| 2016-07-21 | miss | 26.20 | 22.01 | -16.0% | -0.8% | -0.6% | -1.9% |
| 2016-04-21 | beat | 14.96 | 15.79 | +5.6% | -1.0% | -3.3% | -4.7% |
| 2016-01-26 | beat | 30.02 | 31.92 | +6.3% | +1.5% | +4.4% | +4.4% |
| 2015-10-20 | beat | 26.87 | 27.11 | +0.9% | -0.3% | +2.3% | +5.1% |
| 2015-07-21 | beat | 19.01 | 21.91 | +15.3% | +1.4% | +1.5% | +4.3% |
| 2015-04-21 | miss | 9.56 | 9.22 | -3.5% | +0.0% | +3.4% | +3.5% |
| 2015-01-26 | miss | 24.40 | 23.24 | -4.8% | -4.2% | -2.7% | -0.2% |
| 2014-10-20 | 20.70 | 20.70 | — | +2.0% | +6.0% | +8.5% | |
| 2014-07-21 | beat | 14.27 | 15.17 | +6.3% | +2.1% | +5.7% | +5.8% |
| 2014-04-21 | miss | 9.80 | 5.16 | -47.3% | -4.1% | -4.1% | -3.9% |
| 2014-01-27 | beat | 16.31 | 21.15 | +29.7% | +0.0% | +5.2% | +12.8% |
| 2013-10-21 | beat | 15.33 | 17.67 | +15.3% | +2.0% | -4.3% | +0.1% |
| 2013-07-22 | miss | 12.14 | 10.11 | -16.7% | -1.7% | -1.9% | -4.6% |
| 2013-04-22 | miss | 8.03 | 6.84 | -14.8% | -5.8% | -2.2% | +1.2% |
| 2013-01-24 | beat | 11.16 | 11.98 | +7.4% | +1.4% | +2.0% | +4.9% |
| 2012-10-18 | beat | 9.52 | 10.33 | +8.5% | +1.5% | +3.5% | +2.6% |
| 2012-07-19 | miss | 9.08 | 8.97 | -1.2% | -2.5% | -14.0% | -11.7% |
| 2012-04-19 | miss | 4.20 | 3.90 | -7.2% | -0.6% | -0.2% | +3.3% |
| 2012-01-26 | miss | 10.43 | 6.32 | -39.4% | -3.2% | -6.2% | -4.6% |
Not investment advice.
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