SMModel view — historical tendencies for the days ahead, not a forecast
Next 1 day
+1.0%
Next 1 week
+6.6%
Next 1 month
+11.2%
Seasonality
Bullish window historically
Next 30 days (to Nov 29): +9.1% median,
67% of the last 18 years finished up.
20-year seasonality chart →
Mean reversion
Neutral — RSI(2) at 40
RSI(2) under 15 is oversold (this name has historically bounced); over 85 is overbought.
Its dip-buy edge in history is -0.22%/day.
Mean-reversion stats →
1-month breakdown —
Market · β 3.90 +11.2% · Seasonal tilt -0.0%
$20.2B market cap (#643 US)
$1.3B/day volume
93% volatility
-34% 1-year
-72% from ATH
52-week range · 43% of the way up · -36% from the high
$19.48$54.08
Congressional trades in SMCI Full tracker →
5 members · 5 buys / 6 sells · $39K–$235K disclosed · latest filing Jan 13, 2026.
| BUY | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K | |
| BUY | $1K–$15K | |
| BUY | $15K–$50K | |
| SELL | $15K–$50K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K | |
| BUY | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K | |
| BUY | $1K–$15K |
Earnings Full history →
Next report 2026-11-03 (Tuesday, after close, in 4 days) · EPS est. 1.20.
1-day std dev
12.6%
Finished up
62%
Biggest pop
+31.2%
Biggest drop
-25.2%
Standard deviation of the close-to-close move over the last 60 reports. History, not a forecast.
| Reported | Est. | Actual | Surprise | Gap | Day 1 | Day 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | beat | 0.96 | 1.70 | +77.5% | +10.7% | +19.0% | +15.8% |
| 2026-05-05 | beat | 0.62 | 0.84 | +34.5% | +13.0% | +24.5% | +15.0% |
| 2026-02-03 | beat | 0.49 | 0.69 | +41.4% | +11.1% | +13.8% | +8.0% |
| 2025-11-04 | miss | 0.39 | 0.35 | -10.1% | -5.1% | -11.3% | -20.0% |
| 2025-08-05 | miss | 0.44 | 0.41 | -6.6% | -17.3% | -18.3% | -19.5% |
| 2025-05-06 | beat | 0.30 | 0.31 | +3.8% | -5.6% | -1.4% | +36.6% |
| 2025-02-25 | beat | 0.59 | 0.60 | +1.9% | +20.8% | +12.2% | -14.6% |
| 2024-08-06 | miss | 0.81 | 0.63 | -23.2% | -13.7% | -20.1% | -6.5% |
| 2024-04-30 | beat | 0.56 | 0.67 | +19.4% | -9.5% | -14.0% | -4.2% |
| 2024-01-29 | beat | 0.52 | 0.56 | +8.3% | +10.4% | +3.5% | +37.5% |
| 2023-11-01 | beat | 0.32 | 0.34 | +5.7% | +3.4% | -2.5% | +5.0% |
| 2023-08-08 | beat | 0.29 | 0.35 | +20.7% | -14.5% | -23.4% | -27.0% |
| 2023-05-02 | miss | 0.17 | 0.16 | -4.6% | +11.1% | +28.3% | +28.6% |
| 2023-01-31 | beat | 0.30 | 0.33 | +7.7% | -0.5% | +10.2% | +17.8% |
| 2022-11-01 | beat | 0.28 | 0.34 | +21.4% | +4.4% | +12.5% | +6.4% |
| 2022-08-09 | beat | 0.23 | 0.26 | +11.7% | +9.6% | +9.5% | +16.2% |
| 2022-05-03 | beat | 0.12 | 0.16 | +26.7% | +11.8% | +31.2% | +14.2% |
| 2022-02-01 | beat | 0.08 | 0.09 | +13.2% | +4.4% | +5.1% | -7.3% |
| 2021-11-02 | beat | 0.04 | 0.06 | +54.7% | +11.7% | +13.0% | +18.2% |
| 2021-08-10 | beat | 0.08 | 0.08 | +3.9% | +2.4% | +0.6% | -7.6% |
| 2021-05-04 | beat | 0.05 | 0.05 | +7.0% | -2.7% | -0.9% | -8.0% |
| 2021-02-02 | beat | 0.04 | 0.06 | +44.0% | +2.4% | +4.0% | +6.2% |
| 2020-11-03 | beat | 0.02 | 0.06 | +254.8% | +15.8% | +22.3% | +22.8% |
| 2020-08-11 | beat | 0.05 | 0.07 | +29.1% | -8.7% | -14.7% | -15.0% |
| 2020-05-07 | beat | 0.04 | 0.08 | +140.0% | +5.0% | +13.6% | +4.1% |
| 2020-02-06 | miss | 0.07 | 0.06 | -16.2% | -3.0% | -2.5% | -0.8% |
| 2019-12-20 | miss | 0.06 | 0.05 | -19.1% | +0.6% | -1.8% | -2.6% |
| 2019-12-19 | miss | 0.06 | 0.05 | -9.6% | +1.3% | +8.8% | +6.0% |
| 2019-12-18 | miss | 0.05 | 0.02 | -53.7% | -0.1% | +0.8% | +7.3% |
| 2017-08-03 | beat | 0.04 | 0.04 | +7.7% | -2.2% | +0.2% | -0.7% |
| 2017-04-27 | miss | 0.04 | 0.04 | -1.3% | +4.9% | +0.4% | -0.4% |
| 2017-01-26 | beat | 0.05 | 0.05 | +4.7% | +10.3% | -6.5% | -9.6% |
| 2016-10-27 | beat | 0.02 | 0.03 | +71.4% | +6.6% | +10.4% | -0.2% |
| 2016-08-04 | beat | 0.02 | 0.02 | +23.7% | -2.1% | +5.2% | +6.0% |
| 2016-04-28 | beat | 0.03 | 0.04 | +4.3% | -2.0% | -4.8% | -4.6% |
| 2016-01-28 | beat | 0.07 | 0.07 | +9.8% | +3.3% | +10.2% | +18.3% |
| 2015-10-22 | miss | 0.05 | 0.05 | -1.6% | +4.3% | +11.9% | +10.7% |
| 2015-08-04 | beat | 0.06 | 0.06 | +1.3% | +7.7% | +8.1% | +4.8% |
| 2015-04-21 | miss | 0.05 | 0.05 | -4.9% | -3.0% | -8.4% | -14.3% |
| 2015-01-20 | beat | 0.05 | 0.07 | +39.3% | +3.9% | -9.6% | -0.9% |
| 2014-10-21 | beat | 0.04 | 0.05 | +21.1% | +8.8% | +8.8% | +19.3% |
| 2014-08-05 | beat | 0.04 | 0.04 | +1.7% | -3.7% | -7.7% | -6.5% |
| 2014-04-22 | beat | 0.03 | 0.04 | +35.4% | +15.6% | +2.1% | +7.4% |
| 2014-01-21 | beat | 0.03 | 0.04 | +32.9% | +9.8% | +24.2% | +14.3% |
| 2013-10-22 | beat | 0.02 | 0.02 | +4.8% | -1.1% | -5.5% | -3.3% |
| 2013-08-06 | beat | 0.02 | 0.03 | +25.8% | +9.1% | +11.2% | +12.7% |
| 2013-04-23 | beat | 0.02 | 0.02 | +15.0% | +0.3% | -4.9% | -5.6% |
| 2013-01-22 | beat | 0.01 | 0.02 | +28.6% | +8.8% | +18.6% | +16.4% |
| 2012-10-23 | miss | 0.01 | 0.01 | -38.6% | +0.0% | -11.5% | -12.3% |
| 2012-08-07 | miss | 0.02 | 0.02 | -2.7% | -1.6% | +2.5% | -2.0% |
| 2012-04-24 | miss | 0.02 | 0.02 | -13.6% | +0.8% | +2.0% | -2.4% |
| 2012-01-24 | 0.03 | 0.03 | — | +0.2% | -0.2% | -2.1% | |
| 2011-10-25 | beat | 0.02 | 0.03 | +7.4% | +3.8% | +10.4% | +7.8% |
| 2011-08-02 | beat | 0.03 | 0.03 | +1.4% | +2.4% | +14.1% | -0.3% |
| 2011-04-26 | beat | 0.03 | 0.03 | +9.8% | -5.2% | -8.6% | -16.8% |
| 2011-01-25 | beat | 0.02 | 0.03 | +31.0% | +3.6% | +4.7% | +12.0% |
| 2010-10-26 | miss | 0.02 | 0.02 | -1.5% | +0.0% | +11.3% | +11.5% |
| 2010-08-03 | miss | 0.02 | 0.02 | -17.2% | -16.4% | -25.2% | -32.1% |
| 2010-04-27 | miss | 0.02 | 0.02 | -12.9% | -12.4% | -15.7% | -25.5% |
| 2010-01-26 | beat | 0.01 | 0.02 | +35.7% | +12.1% | +16.3% | +6.7% |
Short interest — low Full report →
Crowding
29/100
Squeeze risk
28/100
13.6% of float short
2.6 days to cover
shorts -8% last read
74th %ile of its history
as of 2026-10-15
Not investment advice.
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