SMModel view — historical tendencies for the days ahead, not a forecast
Next 1 day
+0.4%
Next 1 week
+1.7%
Next 1 month
+4.4%
Seasonality
Weak window historically
Next 30 days (to Nov 29): -3.7% median,
30% of the last 10 years finished up.
20-year seasonality chart →
Mean reversion
Overbought — RSI(2) at 86
RSI(2) under 15 is oversold (this name has historically bounced); over 85 is overbought.
Its dip-buy edge in history is -0.19%/day.
Mean-reversion stats →
1-month breakdown —
Market · β 1.68 +4.8% · Seasonal tilt (10y) -0.5%
$11.9B market cap (#682 US)
$84M/day volume
71% volatility
-16% 1-year
-56% from ATH
52-week range · 24% of the way up · -45% from the high
$12.07$29.23
Earnings Full history →
Next report 2026-11-03 (Tuesday, after close, in 5 days) · EPS est. -0.21.
1-day std dev
8.3%
Finished up
35%
Biggest pop
+19.6%
Biggest drop
-24.9%
Standard deviation of the close-to-close move over the last 34 reports. History, not a forecast.
| Reported | Est. | Actual | Surprise | Gap | Day 1 | Day 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | beat | -0.21 | -0.21 | +2.0% | -8.4% | -8.8% | -13.1% |
| 2026-04-30 | beat | -0.21 | -0.18 | +14.2% | -25.3% | -24.9% | -15.8% |
| 2026-02-23 | miss | -0.01 | -0.21 | -1386.3% | -1.9% | +0.2% | -6.1% |
| 2025-10-20 | miss | -0.04 | -0.23 | -429.3% | -10.2% | -4.5% | -7.3% |
| 2025-08-11 | miss | -0.07 | -0.57 | -721.4% | -4.2% | -9.1% | -10.3% |
| 2025-05-01 | beat | -0.07 | -0.07 | +0.7% | +5.1% | +13.1% | -2.9% |
| 2025-02-24 | miss | -0.06 | -0.06 | -3.3% | +1.5% | -14.8% | -13.5% |
| 2024-10-30 | miss | -0.05 | -0.06 | -23.1% | -3.8% | -14.6% | -4.3% |
| 2024-08-06 | miss | -0.05 | -0.07 | -46.9% | +2.4% | -4.7% | +12.3% |
| 2024-05-01 | miss | -0.05 | -0.05 | -1.9% | -0.3% | +19.6% | +26.2% |
| 2021-11-15 | beat | -0.21 | -0.15 | +28.7% | -2.6% | -3.7% | -4.1% |
| 2021-08-11 | miss | -0.13 | -0.19 | -51.0% | +0.6% | -4.0% | -11.9% |
| 2021-05-17 | miss | -0.12 | -0.21 | -72.1% | -1.0% | +17.4% | +15.9% |
| 2021-03-17 | beat | -0.16 | -0.13 | +17.9% | +3.3% | +0.8% | -14.2% |
| 2020-11-16 | miss | -0.19 | -0.19 | -1.6% | -13.2% | -6.7% | -14.3% |
| 2020-09-29 | miss | -0.06 | -0.18 | -184.1% | +0.9% | +0.7% | +0.3% |
| 2020-06-02 | beat | -0.02 | -0.01 | +50.0% | +4.5% | -3.7% | -9.6% |
| 2020-04-30 | miss | -0.03 | -0.03 | -9.1% | +4.2% | -2.1% | -14.9% |
| 2018-12-11 | miss | -0.12 | -0.50 | -327.4% | +0.7% | -8.6% | -10.8% |
| 2018-09-20 | beat | -0.30 | 1.83 | +717.8% | +2.6% | -0.9% | -4.7% |
| 2018-06-05 | miss | -0.10 | -0.40 | -300.0% | +0.0% | -2.5% | -5.7% |
| 2018-04-11 | miss | -0.09 | -0.80 | -788.9% | +0.5% | -0.1% | +3.4% |
| 2017-12-06 | miss | -0.10 | -0.15 | -50.0% | +4.2% | -3.0% | -11.5% |
| 2017-08-31 | beat | 0.25 | 0.85 | +240.0% | +0.4% | +0.0% | +11.8% |
| 2017-06-14 | miss | -0.14 | -0.40 | -185.7% | +5.1% | +0.4% | +4.3% |
| 2017-03-29 | miss | -0.12 | -0.40 | -230.6% | -0.1% | +1.8% | -8.5% |
| 2016-12-15 | miss | -0.02 | -0.40 | -2005.3% | -2.4% | -8.3% | -7.3% |
| 2016-09-08 | miss | -0.10 | -0.50 | -400.0% | +0.4% | -6.9% | -17.5% |
| 2016-06-02 | miss | -0.27 | -0.45 | -67.9% | -1.5% | +0.5% | -7.2% |
| 2016-05-10 | miss | -0.08 | -0.08 | -2.5% | +5.4% | -4.7% | -6.8% |
| 2015-12-17 | beat | -0.10 | -0.08 | +17.5% | +4.6% | +2.0% | -0.9% |
| 2015-08-27 | beat | -0.07 | -0.07 | +6.7% | -0.5% | +0.9% | -2.5% |
| 2015-06-11 | -0.06 | -0.06 | — | -0.5% | +2.0% | +10.2% | |
| 2015-05-06 | -0.07 | -0.07 | — | -3.9% | -3.3% | -11.1% |
Posted about SMMT
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TRACKER - Fast Money Final Trades · CNBC
long
18.87
Mon, 28 Sep
Named as a final trade on CNBC’s Fast Money. The call: on 28 September 2026. The price: The price on this post is SMMT at the moment the post went…
Not investment advice.
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