UAModel view — historical tendencies for the days ahead, not a forecast
Next 1 day
+0.4%
Next 1 week
+2.0%
Next 1 month
+3.2%
Seasonality
Mildly positive window
Next 30 days (to Nov 29): +0.9% median,
55% of the last 20 years finished up.
20-year seasonality chart →
Mean reversion
Deeply overbought — RSI(2) at 93
RSI(2) under 15 is oversold (this name has historically bounced); over 85 is overbought.
Its dip-buy edge in history is -0.08%/day.
Mean-reversion stats →
1-month breakdown —
Market · β 1.32 +3.8% · Seasonal tilt -0.6%
$39M/day volume
54% volatility
+6% 1-year
52-week range · 22% of the way up · -38% from the high
$4.13$8.15
Congressional trades in UAA Full tracker →
7 members · 9 buys / 10 sells · $75K–$425K disclosed · latest filing Jan 12, 2024.
| SELL | $15K–$50K | |
| BUY | $1K–$15K | |
| BUY | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K | |
| BUY | $15K–$50K | |
| SELL | $15K–$50K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K | |
| BUY | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K | |
| BUY | $1K–$15K | |
| BUY | $1K–$15K | |
| BUY | $1K–$15K | |
| BUY | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K | |
| BUY | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $15K–$50K |
Earnings Full history →
Next report 2026-11-06 (Friday, before open, in 8 days) · EPS est. -0.01.
1-day std dev
12.1%
Finished up
52%
Biggest pop
+27.7%
Biggest drop
-25.7%
Standard deviation of the close-to-close move over the last 60 reports. History, not a forecast.
| Reported | Est. | Actual | Surprise | Gap | Day 1 | Day 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | beat | 0.02 | 0.05 | +192.6% | -4.7% | -4.5% | -16.2% |
| 2026-05-12 | miss | -0.02 | -0.03 | -67.6% | -14.5% | -17.0% | -15.2% |
| 2026-02-06 | beat | -0.01 | 0.09 | +721.1% | +2.2% | +20.4% | +14.5% |
| 2025-11-06 | beat | 0.02 | 0.04 | +65.8% | -1.7% | -1.3% | +1.1% |
| 2025-08-08 | miss | 0.03 | 0.02 | -21.6% | -20.5% | -18.1% | -22.1% |
| 2025-05-13 | miss | -0.08 | -0.08 | -0.6% | +3.7% | +1.0% | +7.4% |
| 2025-02-06 | beat | 0.03 | 0.08 | +139.0% | +2.7% | -7.8% | -11.7% |
| 2024-11-07 | beat | 0.19 | 0.30 | +54.8% | +19.0% | +27.2% | +12.6% |
| 2024-08-08 | beat | -0.08 | 0.01 | +112.1% | +15.6% | +19.2% | +25.7% |
| 2024-05-16 | beat | 0.08 | 0.11 | +45.7% | -8.1% | -1.3% | -1.2% |
| 2024-02-08 | beat | 0.11 | 0.19 | +75.3% | +6.6% | +0.1% | +7.3% |
| 2023-11-08 | beat | 0.20 | 0.24 | +17.9% | -1.4% | +2.9% | +9.3% |
| 2023-08-08 | beat | -0.02 | 0.02 | +187.6% | +0.9% | +0.1% | +0.6% |
| 2023-05-09 | beat | 0.15 | 0.18 | +23.0% | -6.8% | -5.7% | -15.3% |
| 2023-02-08 | beat | 0.09 | 0.16 | +75.2% | +1.0% | -8.2% | -11.6% |
| 2022-11-03 | beat | 0.16 | 0.20 | +23.8% | +5.8% | +12.0% | +21.8% |
| 2022-08-03 | beat | 0.03 | 0.03 | +15.6% | +1.6% | +1.4% | +6.1% |
| 2022-02-11 | beat | 0.07 | 0.14 | +104.6% | -4.7% | -12.5% | -17.3% |
| 2021-11-02 | beat | 0.15 | 0.31 | +107.7% | +14.6% | +16.5% | +12.6% |
| 2021-08-03 | beat | 0.06 | 0.24 | +298.1% | +4.4% | +7.5% | +21.3% |
| 2021-05-04 | beat | 0.04 | 0.16 | +336.3% | -2.9% | -1.2% | -4.7% |
| 2021-02-10 | beat | -0.06 | 0.12 | +293.1% | +10.4% | +8.3% | +7.5% |
| 2020-10-30 | beat | 0.03 | 0.26 | +907.4% | +10.3% | +0.4% | +7.4% |
| 2020-07-31 | beat | -0.40 | -0.31 | +23.1% | -1.4% | -8.1% | -9.8% |
| 2020-05-11 | miss | -0.19 | -0.34 | -81.4% | -9.4% | -9.7% | -17.5% |
| 2020-02-11 | miss | 0.10 | 0.10 | -3.1% | -16.5% | -18.9% | -19.0% |
| 2019-11-04 | beat | 0.19 | 0.23 | +22.1% | -15.7% | -18.9% | -16.9% |
| 2019-07-30 | beat | -0.05 | -0.04 | +25.4% | -16.8% | -12.2% | -22.5% |
| 2019-05-02 | — | 0.05 | — | +8.7% | +3.5% | +0.4% | |
| 2019-02-12 | beat | 0.04 | 0.09 | +103.1% | -2.9% | +6.9% | +2.4% |
| 2018-10-30 | beat | 0.12 | 0.25 | +100.8% | +19.4% | +27.7% | +28.1% |
| 2018-07-26 | beat | -0.08 | -0.08 | +3.9% | +0.9% | +4.6% | -7.0% |
| 2018-05-01 | beat | -0.05 | — | +100.0% | -5.1% | +1.5% | +3.2% |
| 2018-02-13 | miss | — | — | -100.0% | +13.5% | +17.4% | +19.7% |
| 2017-10-31 | beat | 0.19 | 0.22 | +17.1% | -13.5% | -23.7% | -27.6% |
| 2017-08-01 | beat | -0.06 | -0.03 | +53.4% | -4.6% | -8.6% | -3.8% |
| 2017-04-27 | beat | -0.04 | -0.01 | +73.6% | +5.1% | +9.9% | +3.6% |
| 2017-01-31 | miss | 0.25 | 0.23 | -8.0% | +0.0% | -25.7% | -29.3% |
| 2016-10-25 | beat | 0.25 | 0.29 | +16.6% | -13.8% | -13.2% | -19.5% |
| 2016-07-26 | miss | 0.02 | 0.01 | -47.5% | -0.2% | -5.1% | -12.9% |
| 2016-04-21 | beat | 0.02 | 0.04 | +69.1% | +8.3% | +6.8% | +1.6% |
| 2016-01-28 | beat | 0.23 | 0.24 | +4.3% | +15.9% | +22.6% | +17.4% |
| 2015-10-22 | beat | 0.22 | 0.23 | +1.9% | -1.1% | -5.4% | -2.8% |
| 2015-07-23 | beat | 0.02 | 0.04 | +44.8% | +4.6% | +7.3% | +11.1% |
| 2015-04-21 | beat | 0.02 | 0.03 | +44.2% | -2.3% | -4.8% | -8.3% |
| 2015-02-04 | beat | 0.19 | 0.20 | +2.7% | +0.7% | -0.4% | +0.5% |
| 2014-10-23 | beat | 0.20 | 0.21 | +2.5% | -4.9% | -2.6% | -2.8% |
| 2014-07-24 | beat | 0.04 | 0.04 | +8.4% | +8.0% | +14.7% | +10.1% |
| 2014-04-24 | beat | 0.02 | 0.03 | +35.5% | -4.7% | -7.4% | -9.7% |
| 2014-01-30 | beat | 0.13 | 0.15 | +11.2% | +13.5% | +22.9% | +24.6% |
| 2013-10-24 | beat | 0.16 | 0.17 | +3.4% | -5.9% | -4.8% | -3.4% |
| 2013-07-25 | beat | 0.03 | 0.04 | +18.4% | +5.7% | +12.2% | +12.4% |
| 2013-04-19 | beat | 0.01 | 0.02 | +126.1% | +4.0% | +1.3% | +0.2% |
| 2013-01-31 | beat | 0.11 | 0.12 | +2.6% | +4.2% | +5.7% | +3.8% |
| 2012-10-25 | beat | 0.13 | 0.14 | +3.5% | -4.5% | -6.5% | -6.4% |
| 2012-07-24 | beat | 0.01 | 0.02 | +24.6% | +6.9% | +9.1% | +12.5% |
| 2012-04-20 | beat | 0.03 | 0.04 | +15.0% | -1.6% | +5.2% | +2.5% |
| 2012-01-26 | beat | 0.08 | 0.08 | +2.8% | -1.9% | -5.3% | +0.1% |
| 2011-10-25 | beat | 0.10 | 0.11 | +5.8% | -2.7% | +5.0% | +7.5% |
| 2011-07-26 | beat | 0.01 | 0.02 | +42.2% | +0.5% | -4.0% | -12.0% |
Not investment advice.
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