UMModel view — historical tendencies for the days ahead, not a forecast
Next 1 day
+0.3%
Next 1 week
+0.9%
Next 1 month
+1.4%
Seasonality
Bullish window historically
Next 30 days (to Nov 28): +1.9% median,
62% of the last 45 years finished up.
20-year seasonality chart →
Mean reversion
Oversold — RSI(2) at 11
RSI(2) under 15 is oversold (this name has historically bounced); over 85 is overbought.
Its dip-buy edge in history is +0.40%/day.
Mean-reversion stats →
1-month breakdown —
Market · β 0.63 +1.6% · Seasonal tilt -0.3%
$88M/day volume
24% volatility
+18% 1-year
-14% from ATH
52-week range · 58% of the way up · -14% from the high
$103.38$153.32
Congressional trades in UMBF Full tracker →
2 members · 3 buys / 3 sells · $48K–$195K disclosed · latest filing May 14, 2025.
| SELL | $1K–$15K | |
| BUY | $1K–$15K | |
| BUY | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $15K–$50K | |
| BUY | $15K–$50K | |
| SELL | $15K–$50K |
Earnings Full history →
Next report 2027-01-26 (Tuesday, after close, in 89 days) · EPS est. 3.28.
1-day std dev
4.1%
Finished up
53%
Biggest pop
+10.3%
Biggest drop
-10.3%
Standard deviation of the close-to-close move over the last 60 reports. History, not a forecast.
| Reported | Est. | Actual | Surprise | Gap | Day 1 | Day 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | beat | 3.22 | 3.56 | +10.5% | +0.0% | -1.1% | — |
| 2026-07-28 | beat | 3.12 | 3.57 | +14.5% | +1.6% | +3.0% | +2.0% |
| 2026-04-28 | beat | 2.82 | 3.41 | +21.0% | +2.0% | -0.9% | +6.9% |
| 2026-01-27 | beat | 2.47 | 2.74 | +10.8% | -2.9% | -0.2% | +4.9% |
| 2025-10-27 | beat | 2.50 | 2.70 | +8.0% | +0.2% | -0.1% | -5.5% |
| 2025-07-29 | beat | 2.37 | 2.96 | +24.6% | +2.0% | +1.5% | +0.7% |
| 2025-04-29 | beat | 0.11 | 1.21 | +985.9% | -7.0% | -3.3% | +3.6% |
| 2025-01-28 | beat | 2.26 | 2.49 | +10.1% | -1.3% | +0.8% | -3.4% |
| 2024-10-29 | beat | 2.20 | 2.25 | +2.3% | +0.6% | +4.2% | +17.8% |
| 2024-07-30 | beat | 2.01 | 2.16 | +7.4% | +4.0% | +3.0% | -7.4% |
| 2024-04-29 | beat | 1.80 | 2.47 | +37.0% | -8.3% | -6.5% | -1.3% |
| 2024-01-30 | beat | 1.76 | 2.29 | +29.8% | -0.9% | -1.2% | -5.2% |
| 2023-10-24 | beat | 1.77 | 2.02 | +13.9% | -3.9% | +1.5% | +3.5% |
| 2023-07-25 | beat | 1.93 | 1.93 | +0.2% | +3.6% | +5.3% | +0.7% |
| 2023-04-25 | beat | 1.89 | 1.91 | +0.9% | +9.2% | +10.3% | -0.1% |
| 2023-01-24 | beat | 2.00 | 2.07 | +3.4% | +0.3% | +3.1% | +5.7% |
| 2022-10-25 | miss | 2.15 | 1.82 | -15.4% | -5.7% | -10.3% | -9.3% |
| 2022-07-26 | beat | 1.90 | 2.83 | +49.3% | +0.4% | -0.7% | -0.7% |
| 2022-04-26 | beat | 1.67 | 2.17 | +30.2% | +0.0% | +2.9% | +2.2% |
| 2022-01-25 | miss | 1.86 | 1.62 | -12.8% | -1.4% | -5.2% | +0.2% |
| 2021-10-26 | beat | 1.80 | 1.95 | +8.4% | -9.9% | -7.4% | -1.1% |
| 2021-07-27 | beat | 1.75 | 1.80 | +2.7% | -0.8% | +4.3% | +4.3% |
| 2021-04-27 | beat | 1.48 | 1.91 | +29.2% | -2.4% | +1.8% | +2.8% |
| 2021-01-26 | beat | 1.49 | 3.26 | +119.0% | -2.8% | -2.7% | +3.0% |
| 2020-10-27 | beat | 1.02 | 1.59 | +56.1% | -1.8% | +3.7% | +8.3% |
| 2020-07-28 | beat | 0.37 | 1.33 | +259.5% | +7.0% | +7.1% | +8.3% |
| 2020-04-28 | miss | 0.87 | -0.04 | -104.6% | +4.1% | +4.4% | -9.1% |
| 2020-01-28 | beat | 1.17 | 1.36 | +16.7% | +4.0% | +2.9% | +6.8% |
| 2019-10-29 | beat | 1.17 | 1.27 | +8.8% | +0.9% | +0.1% | -0.5% |
| 2019-07-30 | beat | 1.17 | 1.17 | +0.4% | +0.1% | +0.5% | -4.9% |
| 2019-04-23 | beat | 1.10 | 1.19 | +8.5% | +2.4% | +2.9% | +6.7% |
| 2019-01-29 | miss | 1.11 | 0.56 | -49.5% | -5.4% | -6.9% | -3.0% |
| 2018-10-23 | beat | 1.12 | 1.16 | +3.3% | -7.9% | -3.3% | +2.3% |
| 2018-07-24 | miss | 1.14 | 1.12 | -1.8% | -9.7% | -7.2% | -8.5% |
| 2018-04-24 | beat | 1.05 | 1.18 | +12.3% | +0.3% | +0.5% | +0.9% |
| 2018-01-23 | beat | 0.93 | 0.95 | +2.0% | +3.8% | +4.5% | +2.7% |
| 2017-10-24 | beat | 0.93 | 0.98 | +5.8% | +2.8% | -1.7% | -2.4% |
| 2017-07-25 | miss | 0.92 | 0.90 | -1.8% | -4.2% | -7.0% | -7.0% |
| 2017-04-25 | beat | 0.85 | 0.89 | +4.8% | +1.3% | +0.3% | -5.5% |
| 2017-01-24 | beat | 0.85 | 0.91 | +6.6% | -1.0% | +1.8% | +0.3% |
| 2016-10-25 | beat | 0.78 | 0.87 | +12.1% | +1.4% | +0.0% | -2.5% |
| 2016-07-26 | beat | 0.74 | 0.80 | +7.6% | +1.5% | +0.6% | -1.4% |
| 2016-04-26 | beat | 0.68 | 0.79 | +16.0% | +0.7% | +3.4% | +4.1% |
| 2016-01-26 | beat | 0.62 | 0.70 | +12.4% | +5.0% | +3.4% | +11.3% |
| 2015-10-27 | miss | 0.68 | 0.52 | -22.5% | -0.4% | -0.2% | +2.1% |
| 2015-07-28 | miss | 0.65 | 0.65 | -0.3% | +0.1% | +0.2% | +2.4% |
| 2015-04-28 | beat | 0.71 | 0.74 | +4.6% | +0.7% | -3.9% | -0.8% |
| 2015-01-27 | miss | 0.76 | 0.59 | -22.2% | -2.0% | -6.3% | -1.8% |
| 2014-10-28 | beat | 0.76 | 0.78 | +3.2% | +0.1% | +0.9% | +3.7% |
| 2014-07-22 | miss | 0.76 | 0.76 | -0.2% | -0.3% | -1.3% | +0.4% |
| 2014-04-22 | miss | 0.71 | 0.52 | -27.2% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -4.6% |
| 2014-01-28 | beat | 0.74 | 0.77 | +3.9% | -1.0% | -6.5% | -10.8% |
| 2013-10-22 | beat | 0.73 | 0.83 | +12.9% | +0.5% | +2.4% | +1.6% |
| 2013-07-23 | beat | 0.74 | 0.74 | +0.7% | +0.0% | +1.4% | -0.6% |
| 2013-04-23 | beat | 0.64 | 0.87 | +36.8% | +1.3% | +4.8% | +7.4% |
| 2013-01-22 | miss | 0.67 | 0.52 | -22.4% | -1.0% | -4.5% | -5.5% |
| 2012-10-23 | miss | 0.67 | 0.64 | -4.8% | +0.0% | -4.2% | -4.9% |
| 2012-07-24 | beat | 0.69 | 0.72 | +4.3% | +1.0% | -2.9% | -5.3% |
| 2012-04-24 | beat | 0.61 | 1.15 | +89.8% | +0.5% | +5.9% | +8.7% |
| 2012-01-24 | miss | 0.62 | 0.58 | -6.1% | -0.3% | -2.1% | -2.1% |
Not investment advice.
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