VRModel view — historical tendencies for the days ahead, not a forecast
Next 1 day
+0.4%
Next 1 week
-0.3%
Next 1 month
+3.0%
Seasonality
Mildly positive window
Next 30 days (to Nov 29): +13.6% median,
55% of the last 11 years finished up.
20-year seasonality chart →
Mean reversion
Deeply overbought — RSI(2) at 96
RSI(2) under 15 is oversold (this name has historically bounced); over 85 is overbought.
Its dip-buy edge in history is -0.03%/day.
Mean-reversion stats →
1-month breakdown —
Market · β 0.97 +2.8% · Seasonal tilt (11y) +0.2%
$42M/day volume
72% volatility
+7% 1-year
52-week range · 55% of the way up · -28% from the high
$13.18$34.29
Earnings Full history →
Next report 2026-11-04 (Wednesday, before open, in 7 days) · EPS est. -1.02.
1-day std dev
12.7%
Finished up
44%
Biggest pop
+49.4%
Biggest drop
-17.2%
Standard deviation of the close-to-close move over the last 39 reports. History, not a forecast.
| Reported | Est. | Actual | Surprise | Gap | Day 1 | Day 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | miss | -1.03 | -1.05 | -2.3% | -0.6% | +6.8% | +4.4% |
| 2026-05-05 | beat | -1.08 | -0.90 | +16.3% | +35.6% | +33.4% | +19.9% |
| 2026-02-26 | miss | -1.00 | -1.08 | -8.0% | -6.5% | +1.9% | -0.2% |
| 2025-11-05 | beat | -0.94 | -0.34 | +63.9% | +3.1% | +8.3% | +28.3% |
| 2025-08-06 | miss | -0.98 | -1.00 | -1.6% | +1.7% | -1.4% | +8.1% |
| 2025-05-06 | beat | -0.96 | -0.87 | +9.8% | -1.4% | -8.3% | -2.4% |
| 2025-02-26 | beat | -1.04 | -0.81 | +22.4% | -0.5% | -1.5% | +2.3% |
| 2024-11-12 | miss | -1.05 | -1.15 | -9.5% | +5.2% | -12.8% | -21.3% |
| 2024-08-08 | miss | -0.92 | -1.02 | -10.5% | -5.0% | -1.8% | -3.1% |
| 2024-05-08 | beat | -1.08 | -0.79 | +27.1% | +2.4% | -1.6% | -5.7% |
| 2024-02-27 | miss | -1.03 | -1.35 | -31.5% | -0.5% | +2.9% | -5.3% |
| 2023-11-13 | beat | -1.24 | -1.09 | +12.2% | +5.2% | +8.8% | +12.2% |
| 2023-08-08 | miss | -1.26 | -1.27 | -0.6% | +0.2% | +2.7% | +3.7% |
| 2023-05-10 | miss | -0.90 | -1.61 | -77.9% | -3.7% | -1.2% | -10.8% |
| 2023-03-08 | miss | -0.72 | -1.13 | -56.1% | -12.2% | -10.5% | -13.5% |
| 2022-11-14 | beat | -1.01 | -0.86 | +14.8% | -2.5% | -0.9% | +9.4% |
| 2022-08-15 | miss | -0.90 | -1.06 | -18.0% | +35.8% | +49.4% | +61.4% |
| 2022-05-12 | beat | -0.98 | -0.98 | +0.2% | +5.6% | +28.0% | +28.6% |
| 2022-03-10 | miss | -0.99 | -1.32 | -33.1% | -7.2% | +5.5% | +5.0% |
| 2021-11-05 | beat | -1.34 | -1.25 | +6.9% | +3.4% | +5.0% | +6.1% |
| 2021-08-11 | miss | -1.40 | -2.21 | -57.9% | -2.1% | -13.9% | -4.4% |
| 2021-05-07 | miss | -0.30 | -2.91 | -870.0% | +1.8% | +1.0% | +0.3% |
| 2021-03-26 | miss | -1.03 | -30.74 | -2896.1% | -2.2% | -4.4% | -8.5% |
| 2020-11-10 | beat | -1.99 | -1.50 | +24.5% | -7.4% | +0.0% | +9.0% |
| 2020-08-05 | beat | -2.47 | -1.80 | +27.3% | -3.4% | -6.8% | -4.3% |
| 2020-05-07 | beat | -3.15 | -2.70 | +14.3% | +5.5% | +7.3% | +11.8% |
| 2020-03-11 | miss | -3.78 | -4.65 | -23.0% | -19.9% | -16.7% | -40.7% |
| 2019-11-07 | miss | -4.44 | -5.40 | -21.6% | -1.7% | +0.6% | -8.7% |
| 2019-08-07 | beat | -5.45 | -4.35 | +20.2% | -1.3% | -17.2% | -47.1% |
| 2019-05-08 | miss | -5.16 | -5.70 | -10.5% | -2.8% | +0.0% | +2.8% |
| 2019-03-13 | miss | -4.62 | -4.95 | -7.1% | +5.3% | +2.6% | +31.7% |
| 2018-11-07 | beat | -4.76 | -4.35 | +8.7% | -8.5% | -5.3% | -23.3% |
| 2018-08-07 | -4.35 | -4.35 | — | -1.4% | -7.0% | -6.8% | |
| 2018-05-09 | beat | -3.67 | -2.70 | +26.5% | +1.5% | -0.7% | -1.7% |
| 2018-03-14 | beat | -4.76 | -4.35 | +8.7% | +3.0% | +2.7% | +7.9% |
| 2017-11-08 | beat | -5.70 | -4.05 | +28.9% | +0.3% | -0.4% | -6.8% |
| 2017-08-11 | beat | -7.05 | -5.10 | +27.7% | -2.7% | -15.9% | -14.8% |
| 2017-05-10 | miss | -3.60 | -9.00 | -150.0% | -1.8% | +2.1% | -3.6% |
| 2017-03-31 | miss | -3.45 | -4.08 | -18.3% | -3.4% | -0.5% | +8.5% |
Posted about VRDN
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TRACKER - Insider Trades
long
17.57
Wed, 13 May
Fairmount Healthcare Fund II L.P. has been buying VRDN. The buy: Fairmount Healthcare Fund II L.P., a Director, bought 1,176,470 shares of VRDN on 11…
TRACKER - Insider Trades
long
22.88
Mon, 27 Oct 2025
Fairmount Healthcare Fund II GP LLC has been buying VRDN. The buy: Fairmount Healthcare Fund II GP LLC, a Director, bought 454,545 shares of VRDN on…
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