XYModel view — historical tendencies for the days ahead, not a forecast
Next 1 day
+0.5%
Next 1 week
+3.7%
Next 1 month
+5.3%
Seasonality
Bullish window historically
Next 30 days (to Nov 29): +11.5% median,
80% of the last 10 years finished up.
20-year seasonality chart →
Mean reversion
Overbought — RSI(2) at 83
RSI(2) under 15 is oversold (this name has historically bounced); over 85 is overbought.
Its dip-buy edge in history is +0.09%/day.
Mean-reversion stats →
1-month breakdown —
Market · β 1.81 +5.2% · Seasonal tilt (10y) +0.1%
$338M/day volume
46% volatility
-4% 1-year
-73% from ATH
52-week range · 74% of the way up · -12% from the high
$48.21$86.92
Congressional trades in XYZ Full tracker →
2 members · 2 buys / 4 sells · $97K–$280K disclosed · latest filing Jun 22, 2025.
| SELL | $15K–$50K | |
| SELL | $15K–$50K | |
| BUY | $50K–$100K | |
| SELL | $15K–$50K | |
| BUY | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K |
Earnings Full history →
Next report 2026-11-03 (Tuesday, after close, in 4 days) · EPS est. 1.03.
1-day std dev
10.2%
Finished up
58%
Biggest pop
+26.1%
Biggest drop
-21.7%
Standard deviation of the close-to-close move over the last 43 reports. History, not a forecast.
| Reported | Est. | Actual | Surprise | Gap | Day 1 | Day 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | beat | 0.87 | 1.02 | +16.7% | -0.5% | -6.2% | -1.3% |
| 2026-05-07 | beat | 0.68 | 0.85 | +25.6% | +7.8% | +6.7% | +0.3% |
| 2026-02-26 | beat | 0.65 | 0.65 | +0.1% | +15.7% | +16.8% | +21.6% |
| 2025-11-06 | miss | 0.66 | 0.54 | -18.1% | -13.5% | -7.7% | -14.7% |
| 2025-08-07 | miss | 0.67 | 0.62 | -8.0% | +6.9% | -4.5% | -1.4% |
| 2025-05-01 | miss | 0.93 | 0.56 | -39.7% | -22.5% | -20.4% | -13.9% |
| 2025-02-20 | miss | 0.87 | 0.71 | -18.8% | -9.7% | -17.7% | -21.4% |
| 2024-11-07 | miss | 0.89 | 0.88 | -1.3% | -4.5% | -0.9% | +12.0% |
| 2024-08-01 | beat | 0.84 | 0.93 | +11.4% | -2.4% | +0.8% | +3.7% |
| 2024-05-02 | beat | 0.73 | 0.85 | +16.4% | +8.8% | -1.2% | +1.4% |
| 2024-02-22 | miss | 0.57 | 0.45 | -21.1% | +17.4% | +16.1% | +16.6% |
| 2023-11-02 | beat | 0.46 | 0.55 | +18.8% | +15.5% | +10.7% | +17.1% |
| 2023-08-03 | beat | 0.37 | 0.39 | +5.7% | -8.0% | -13.6% | -17.6% |
| 2023-05-04 | beat | 0.34 | 0.40 | +17.4% | +0.3% | -2.0% | -8.1% |
| 2023-02-23 | miss | 0.30 | 0.22 | -27.0% | +4.5% | +4.3% | +9.1% |
| 2022-11-03 | beat | 0.23 | 0.42 | +83.3% | +11.9% | +11.5% | +32.9% |
| 2022-08-04 | beat | 0.16 | 0.18 | +12.2% | -6.7% | -2.2% | -2.0% |
| 2022-05-05 | miss | 0.20 | 0.18 | -10.6% | +3.3% | +0.7% | -11.9% |
| 2022-02-24 | beat | 0.23 | 0.27 | +16.2% | +21.0% | +26.1% | +12.1% |
| 2021-11-04 | miss | 0.38 | 0.37 | -3.0% | +0.1% | -4.1% | -8.1% |
| 2021-08-02 | beat | 0.31 | 0.66 | +113.0% | +0.3% | +10.2% | +13.1% |
| 2021-05-06 | beat | 0.16 | 0.41 | +149.8% | +7.2% | +4.2% | -7.2% |
| 2021-02-23 | beat | 0.24 | 0.32 | +33.3% | -5.3% | -7.5% | -8.7% |
| 2020-11-05 | beat | 0.16 | 0.34 | +112.7% | +5.7% | +13.0% | +1.1% |
| 2020-08-05 | beat | -0.05 | 0.18 | +453.4% | +11.9% | +7.1% | +1.6% |
| 2020-05-06 | miss | 0.13 | -0.02 | -115.6% | +2.6% | +9.6% | +14.8% |
| 2020-02-26 | beat | 0.21 | 0.23 | +9.8% | +6.3% | +3.6% | -0.4% |
| 2019-11-06 | beat | 0.20 | 0.25 | +23.5% | +0.9% | +5.0% | +2.7% |
| 2019-08-01 | beat | 0.16 | 0.21 | +28.7% | -12.6% | -14.1% | -19.7% |
| 2019-05-01 | beat | 0.08 | 0.11 | +40.5% | -5.2% | -8.0% | -9.8% |
| 2019-02-27 | beat | 0.13 | 0.14 | +3.9% | -4.3% | +2.4% | -6.6% |
| 2018-11-07 | beat | 0.11 | 0.13 | +16.4% | -3.9% | -9.0% | -11.0% |
| 2018-08-01 | beat | 0.11 | 0.13 | +15.0% | -2.4% | +8.7% | +3.8% |
| 2018-05-02 | beat | 0.05 | 0.06 | +11.9% | -4.0% | +1.1% | +12.3% |
| 2018-02-27 | beat | 0.07 | 0.08 | +18.1% | +0.0% | +0.3% | +10.5% |
| 2017-11-08 | beat | 0.05 | 0.07 | +29.5% | -0.7% | +3.4% | +14.1% |
| 2017-08-02 | beat | 0.05 | 0.07 | +39.2% | -4.0% | -4.7% | -6.8% |
| 2017-05-03 | beat | 0.02 | 0.05 | +130.9% | +5.2% | +8.9% | +7.8% |
| 2017-02-22 | beat | -0.07 | -0.04 | +38.7% | +10.8% | +14.0% | +13.0% |
| 2016-11-01 | beat | -0.12 | -0.09 | +22.2% | +3.4% | +6.4% | +8.4% |
| 2016-08-03 | miss | -0.03 | -0.08 | -144.6% | +15.8% | +8.4% | +8.9% |
| 2016-05-05 | miss | -0.08 | -0.29 | -250.3% | -16.6% | -21.7% | -28.3% |
| 2016-03-10 | miss | -0.11 | -0.21 | -94.5% | +0.8% | -1.8% | +6.5% |
Posted about XYZ
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TRACKER - Cathie Wood
long
—
Tue, 29 Sep
ARK bought 26,940 shares of ABNB for ARKF. The trade: 0.50% of that fund, on 29 September 2026 — roughly $4.2m at that day’s close. The entry: ABNB's…
TRACKER - Analyst Ratings
long
79.07
Fri, 11 Sep
StoneX upgraded XYZ, Hold to Buy with a $105 target, on 10 September 2026. The price shown is where XYZ closed that day, for reference — a published…
Not investment advice.
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