AI chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +0.1% | -0.5% | 12.4% | 50% |
| Day 2 | -2.2% | -1.7% | 3.5% | 30% |
| Day 3 | +0.2% | +0.5% | 4.2% | 70% |
| 5-day | +2.0% | +1.5% | 11.5% | 60% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | -0.25 | — | — | +2.1% | +3.6% | -3.3% | — |
| 2026-06-03 beat | -0.37 | -0.33 | +11.5% | +4.8% | -1.2% | +6.5% | -15.6% |
| 2026-02-25 miss | -0.29 | -0.40 | -38.3% | -24.4% | -18.5% | +11.8% | -7.6% |
| 2025-12-03 beat | -0.33 | -0.25 | +24.8% | -0.4% | +2.1% | +3.9% | -7.6% |
| 2025-09-03 miss | -0.21 | -0.37 | -75.3% | -10.4% | -7.3% | +6.1% | +23.9% |
| 2025-05-28 beat | -0.20 | -0.16 | +20.4% | +15.5% | +20.8% | -8.8% | -11.6% |
| 2025-02-26 beat | -0.25 | -0.12 | +52.0% | -5.6% | -9.7% | -10.0% | -8.7% |
| 2024-12-09 beat | -0.16 | -0.06 | +62.9% | -11.0% | +0.1% | +2.7% | -25.8% |
| 2024-09-04 beat | -0.13 | -0.05 | +62.6% | -16.6% | -8.2% | +8.3% | +14.0% |
| 2024-05-29 beat | -0.30 | -0.11 | +63.7% | +10.6% | +19.4% | +4.8% | +0.1% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.