AJG chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -0.1% | -0.2% | 2.8% | 50% |
| Day 2 | -0.2% | -0.3% | 1.5% | 40% |
| Day 3 | +0.9% | +0.8% | 1.2% | 80% |
| 5-day | +0.5% | -0.5% | 4.5% | 50% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 beat | 2.81 | 2.84 | +0.9% | -4.1% | -2.7% | -0.5% | +5.1% |
| 2026-04-30 beat | 4.43 | 4.47 | +1.0% | +5.1% | +0.8% | -4.4% | -1.1% |
| 2026-01-29 beat | 2.35 | 2.38 | +1.4% | +1.2% | +1.4% | -3.1% | -9.7% |
| 2025-10-30 miss | 2.54 | 2.32 | -8.5% | -7.4% | -4.8% | +0.2% | -2.1% |
| 2025-07-31 miss | 2.36 | 2.33 | -1.2% | -0.8% | -1.1% | +1.9% | +6.5% |
| 2025-05-01 beat | 3.58 | 3.67 | +2.5% | +4.0% | +4.2% | +2.1% | +4.3% |
| 2025-01-30 beat | 2.03 | 2.13 | +5.0% | -0.3% | +0.9% | +6.8% | +11.7% |
| 2024-10-24 miss | 2.27 | 2.26 | -0.6% | -1.6% | -1.6% | -0.9% | +8.3% |
| 2024-07-25 beat | 2.24 | 2.26 | +1.0% | -1.8% | +3.5% | +1.3% | +1.1% |
| 2024-04-25 beat | 3.41 | 3.49 | +2.5% | +0.0% | -1.2% | +2.0% | +6.1% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.