AJG chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +0.3% | +0.2% | 2.6% | 50% |
| Day 2 | -0.0% | -0.2% | 1.7% | 43% |
| Day 3 | +0.7% | +0.4% | 1.1% | 70% |
| 5-day | +1.5% | +1.1% | 4.3% | 63% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 beat | 2.81 | 2.84 | +0.9% | -4.1% | -2.7% | -0.5% | +5.1% |
| 2026-04-30 beat | 4.43 | 4.47 | +1.0% | +5.1% | +0.8% | -4.4% | -1.1% |
| 2026-01-29 beat | 2.35 | 2.38 | +1.4% | +1.2% | +1.4% | -3.1% | -9.7% |
| 2025-10-30 miss | 2.54 | 2.32 | -8.5% | -7.4% | -4.8% | +0.2% | -2.1% |
| 2025-07-31 miss | 2.36 | 2.33 | -1.2% | -0.8% | -1.1% | +1.9% | +6.5% |
| 2025-05-01 beat | 3.58 | 3.67 | +2.5% | +4.0% | +4.2% | +2.1% | +4.3% |
| 2025-01-30 beat | 2.03 | 2.13 | +5.0% | -0.3% | +0.9% | +6.8% | +11.7% |
| 2024-10-24 miss | 2.27 | 2.26 | -0.6% | -1.6% | -1.6% | -0.9% | +8.3% |
| 2024-07-25 beat | 2.24 | 2.26 | +1.0% | -1.8% | +3.5% | +1.3% | +1.1% |
| 2024-04-25 beat | 3.41 | 3.49 | +2.5% | +0.0% | -1.2% | +2.0% | +6.1% |
| 2024-01-25 miss | 1.85 | 1.85 | -0.1% | -0.7% | -2.0% | -0.1% | +4.5% |
| 2023-10-26 beat | 1.95 | 2.00 | +2.6% | +1.8% | -0.7% | +6.2% | +8.1% |
| 2023-07-27 beat | 1.86 | 1.90 | +2.2% | +2.1% | -0.4% | +2.1% | +5.9% |
| 2023-04-27 beat | 2.99 | 3.03 | +1.2% | -0.5% | -0.5% | +2.8% | -2.2% |
| 2023-01-26 beat | 1.50 | 1.54 | +3.0% | +1.3% | -1.7% | -0.2% | -3.3% |
| 2022-10-27 beat | 1.66 | 1.72 | +3.4% | +4.2% | +6.2% | -0.1% | +3.8% |
| 2022-07-28 beat | 1.68 | 1.70 | +1.2% | +5.0% | +1.7% | -0.3% | +3.4% |
| 2022-04-28 beat | 2.76 | 2.81 | +1.8% | -1.7% | -6.0% | -2.4% | -3.9% |
| 2022-01-27 beat | 0.95 | 0.98 | +3.2% | +0.3% | +3.5% | +1.1% | +1.0% |
| 2021-10-28 beat | 1.21 | 1.33 | +9.8% | +0.2% | +2.2% | -4.4% | -2.8% |
| 2021-07-29 beat | 1.07 | 1.17 | +8.8% | +0.2% | -0.1% | -0.2% | +3.0% |
| 2021-04-29 beat | 1.84 | 2.02 | +10.0% | +0.7% | +3.0% | +4.3% | +1.1% |
| 2021-01-28 beat | 0.78 | 0.88 | +12.1% | -0.6% | -0.1% | +2.6% | +5.5% |
| 2020-10-29 beat | 0.92 | 1.08 | +16.8% | -0.5% | +0.7% | +6.6% | +12.5% |
| 2020-07-30 beat | 0.73 | 0.94 | +29.0% | +1.4% | +2.8% | -0.6% | -2.0% |
| 2020-04-30 beat | 1.73 | 1.83 | +5.7% | +0.0% | -1.3% | +11.5% | +23.2% |
| 2020-01-30 beat | 0.52 | 0.58 | +10.5% | +2.8% | +2.4% | +2.3% | -1.8% |
| 2019-10-24 beat | 0.79 | 0.80 | +1.2% | +0.1% | -1.9% | +2.3% | +2.7% |
| 2019-07-25 beat | 0.61 | 0.65 | +6.5% | -0.3% | +0.5% | -2.4% | -4.3% |
| 2019-04-25 beat | 1.61 | 1.63 | +1.3% | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.0% | +0.9% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.