BMI chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -4.9% | -5.8% | 12.3% | 30% |
| Day 2 | -0.4% | -0.9% | 3.3% | 40% |
| Day 3 | +1.9% | +1.9% | 2.4% | 80% |
| 5-day | -2.6% | -4.8% | 14.6% | 40% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 beat | 1.01 | 1.02 | +0.7% | +0.1% | -13.2% | +5.4% | +1.2% |
| 2026-04-17 miss | 1.22 | 0.93 | -24.0% | -20.3% | -24.1% | +5.4% | +3.0% |
| 2026-01-28 miss | 1.16 | 1.14 | -1.5% | -12.3% | -11.0% | +0.0% | +4.2% |
| 2025-10-21 beat | 1.14 | 1.19 | +4.6% | +1.1% | -5.4% | +4.6% | -4.7% |
| 2025-07-22 miss | 1.25 | 1.17 | -6.7% | -7.7% | -16.5% | -8.2% | -8.4% |
| 2025-04-17 beat | 1.05 | 1.30 | +23.3% | -0.1% | +9.6% | +7.3% | +20.7% |
| 2025-01-31 miss | 1.10 | 1.04 | -5.1% | +3.8% | +2.6% | +0.0% | -2.0% |
| 2024-10-17 miss | 1.11 | 1.08 | -2.7% | -8.2% | -6.3% | -2.3% | +4.5% |
| 2024-07-19 beat | 0.97 | 1.12 | +15.1% | +0.3% | -1.8% | +8.3% | +6.8% |
| 2024-04-18 beat | 0.82 | 0.99 | +20.9% | +7.5% | +16.7% | +3.0% | +10.5% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.