BP chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -0.7% | -0.7% | 4.6% | 40% |
| Day 2 | +0.0% | +0.2% | 1.9% | 50% |
| Day 3 | +0.3% | +0.7% | 1.6% | 70% |
| 5-day | +0.2% | -1.4% | 5.9% | 45% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 beat | 1.78 | 2.22 | +24.6% | -2.3% | -4.1% | +1.7% | +3.5% |
| 2026-04-28 beat | 0.93 | 1.24 | +33.2% | +1.2% | +0.8% | +0.3% | -10.3% |
| 2026-02-10 miss | 0.60 | 0.60 | -0.5% | -5.6% | -5.7% | +4.2% | +14.0% |
| 2025-11-04 beat | 0.77 | 0.85 | +9.9% | +1.7% | +0.7% | +6.3% | +6.0% |
| 2025-08-05 beat | 0.66 | 0.90 | +36.1% | +1.3% | +3.4% | +1.4% | +2.1% |
| 2025-04-29 miss | 0.56 | 0.53 | -5.8% | -3.5% | -3.6% | +1.2% | +3.9% |
| 2025-02-11 miss | 0.45 | 0.44 | -3.0% | -0.5% | +0.4% | +0.0% | -6.3% |
| 2024-10-29 beat | 0.79 | 0.83 | +5.7% | -3.7% | -5.4% | +2.0% | -0.8% |
| 2024-07-30 beat | 0.91 | 1.00 | +10.4% | +0.4% | -0.4% | -5.4% | -1.7% |
| 2024-05-07 beat | 0.97 | 0.97 | +0.4% | -2.3% | -3.7% | +1.0% | -5.7% |
| 2024-02-06 beat | 1.00 | 1.07 | +7.5% | +4.4% | +6.3% | -1.0% | +0.1% |
| 2023-10-31 miss | 1.34 | 1.15 | -14.5% | -4.9% | -4.6% | -3.0% | -0.8% |
| 2023-08-01 miss | 1.16 | 0.89 | -23.2% | +0.7% | -0.9% | +0.0% | +0.9% |
| 2023-05-02 beat | 1.42 | 1.66 | +17.1% | -6.6% | -8.1% | +0.6% | -5.6% |
| 2023-02-07 miss | 1.65 | 1.59 | -3.5% | +4.1% | +8.4% | +8.7% | +4.2% |
| 2022-11-01 beat | 1.96 | 2.59 | +32.0% | +0.8% | -0.2% | +1.6% | +7.6% |
| 2022-08-02 beat | 2.13 | 2.61 | +22.7% | +3.3% | +1.1% | +4.1% | +5.0% |
| 2022-05-03 beat | 1.39 | 1.92 | +38.0% | +5.0% | +8.0% | -4.1% | +5.3% |
| 2022-02-08 beat | 1.14 | 1.23 | +7.5% | +0.4% | -1.6% | -2.0% | -11.5% |
| 2021-11-02 beat | 0.87 | 0.99 | +13.5% | -3.1% | -4.6% | +0.9% | -3.1% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.