BP chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -1.8% | -2.0% | 3.1% | 40% |
| Day 2 | +0.3% | +0.6% | 2.1% | 60% |
| Day 3 | +0.3% | +1.1% | 1.8% | 70% |
| 5-day | -0.5% | -2.1% | 4.0% | 40% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 beat | 1.78 | 2.22 | +24.6% | -2.3% | -4.1% | +1.7% | +3.5% |
| 2026-04-28 beat | 0.93 | 1.24 | +33.2% | +1.2% | +0.8% | +0.3% | -10.3% |
| 2026-02-10 miss | 0.60 | 0.60 | -0.5% | -5.6% | -5.7% | +4.2% | +14.0% |
| 2025-11-04 beat | 0.77 | 0.85 | +9.9% | +1.7% | +0.7% | +6.3% | +6.0% |
| 2025-08-05 beat | 0.66 | 0.90 | +36.1% | +1.3% | +3.4% | +1.4% | +2.1% |
| 2025-04-29 miss | 0.56 | 0.53 | -5.8% | -3.5% | -3.6% | +1.2% | +3.9% |
| 2025-02-11 miss | 0.45 | 0.44 | -3.0% | -0.5% | +0.4% | +0.0% | -6.3% |
| 2024-10-29 beat | 0.79 | 0.83 | +5.7% | -3.7% | -5.4% | +2.0% | -0.8% |
| 2024-07-30 beat | 0.91 | 1.00 | +10.4% | +0.4% | -0.4% | -5.4% | -1.7% |
| 2024-05-07 beat | 0.97 | 0.97 | +0.4% | -2.3% | -3.7% | +1.0% | -5.7% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.