BXMT chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -2.3% | -1.6% | 5.2% | 50% |
| Day 2 | -0.8% | -0.9% | 1.8% | 20% |
| Day 3 | +0.4% | +0.7% | 1.2% | 70% |
| 5-day | -3.2% | -2.6% | 6.6% | 30% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 miss | 0.35 | 0.31 | -12.2% | -3.5% | -8.7% | -7.5% | -8.3% |
| 2026-04-29 miss | 0.35 | 0.21 | -40.3% | -3.0% | -4.6% | +1.1% | -4.2% |
| 2026-02-11 miss | 0.27 | -2.07 | -866.7% | -1.2% | +2.0% | -3.6% | -7.2% |
| 2025-10-29 miss | 0.27 | 0.24 | -12.5% | +3.0% | +3.5% | -1.9% | +3.7% |
| 2025-07-30 miss | 0.26 | 0.19 | -28.1% | -1.7% | -3.8% | +0.1% | +4.2% |
| 2025-04-30 miss | 0.28 | 0.17 | -39.3% | -0.6% | +0.5% | -1.5% | -0.8% |
| 2025-02-12 miss | -0.87 | -1.25 | -43.4% | -2.1% | +1.6% | +7.0% | +7.2% |
| 2024-10-23 beat | 0.34 | 0.39 | +15.3% | -0.8% | +2.6% | -2.4% | -1.7% |
| 2024-07-24 beat | 0.46 | 0.49 | +7.0% | -10.1% | -11.6% | +2.9% | +1.6% |
| 2024-04-24 miss | 0.44 | 0.33 | -24.9% | -5.9% | -4.6% | -2.7% | -6.5% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.