CF chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -0.9% | -0.5% | 4.8% | 40% |
| Day 2 | -0.8% | -0.8% | 1.9% | 50% |
| Day 3 | +2.2% | +1.7% | 3.0% | 80% |
| 5-day | +0.8% | +0.8% | 4.9% | 60% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 miss | 5.57 | 4.73 | -15.1% | -4.0% | +0.0% | +0.3% | +14.2% |
| 2026-05-06 beat | 2.66 | 2.89 | +8.7% | -4.7% | -0.9% | +3.6% | -7.8% |
| 2026-02-18 beat | 2.47 | 3.06 | +23.9% | +1.2% | +3.8% | -2.3% | +25.6% |
| 2025-11-05 beat | 2.07 | 2.19 | +5.6% | -2.2% | -4.2% | +3.5% | -5.1% |
| 2025-08-06 miss | 2.47 | 2.39 | -3.4% | -6.3% | -7.8% | +2.9% | +1.9% |
| 2025-05-07 beat | 1.50 | 1.98 | +31.6% | +4.4% | +0.8% | +6.0% | +14.2% |
| 2025-02-19 beat | 1.51 | 1.79 | +18.1% | -1.2% | -4.2% | -0.8% | -4.3% |
| 2024-10-30 beat | 1.16 | 1.55 | +34.3% | +2.0% | +0.6% | +2.9% | +10.6% |
| 2024-08-07 beat | 1.91 | 2.30 | +20.5% | +5.3% | +8.5% | +0.3% | -1.3% |
| 2024-05-01 miss | 1.62 | 1.03 | -36.3% | -1.9% | -5.3% | +0.6% | +9.0% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.