CL chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +0.6% | +1.0% | 3.2% | 60% |
| Day 2 | -0.7% | -0.4% | 1.7% | 40% |
| Day 3 | +0.8% | +1.2% | 1.3% | 60% |
| 5-day | +1.6% | +2.2% | 5.1% | 70% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 beat | 0.95 | 0.99 | +4.5% | -0.8% | -0.3% | +2.2% | -1.6% |
| 2026-05-01 beat | 0.94 | 0.97 | +2.7% | +3.3% | +2.2% | +0.3% | +1.2% |
| 2026-01-30 beat | 0.91 | 0.95 | +4.2% | +4.1% | +5.9% | +4.6% | +5.8% |
| 2025-10-31 beat | 0.89 | 0.91 | +2.4% | -1.3% | +0.7% | +2.2% | +2.3% |
| 2025-08-01 beat | 0.89 | 0.92 | +2.8% | +0.2% | -0.4% | +1.4% | +1.1% |
| 2025-04-25 beat | 0.86 | 0.91 | +6.1% | +3.0% | +1.3% | -3.7% | -1.6% |
| 2025-01-31 beat | 0.89 | 0.91 | +2.3% | -6.0% | -4.6% | +0.1% | +5.0% |
| 2024-10-25 beat | 0.88 | 0.91 | +2.9% | -3.2% | -4.1% | -2.4% | -0.3% |
| 2024-07-26 beat | 0.87 | 0.91 | +4.7% | +2.6% | +3.0% | +3.4% | +5.7% |
| 2024-04-26 beat | 0.81 | 0.86 | +5.8% | +1.9% | +1.9% | +2.1% | +1.0% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.