CL chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +0.1% | +0.4% | 3.1% | 53% |
| Day 2 | +0.2% | +0.2% | 1.7% | 60% |
| Day 3 | +0.6% | +0.3% | 1.2% | 63% |
| 5-day | +1.1% | +1.1% | 4.3% | 57% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 beat | 0.95 | 0.99 | +4.5% | -0.8% | -0.3% | +2.2% | -1.6% |
| 2026-05-01 beat | 0.94 | 0.97 | +2.7% | +3.3% | +2.2% | +0.3% | +1.2% |
| 2026-01-30 beat | 0.91 | 0.95 | +4.2% | +4.1% | +5.9% | +4.6% | +5.8% |
| 2025-10-31 beat | 0.89 | 0.91 | +2.4% | -1.3% | +0.7% | +2.2% | +2.3% |
| 2025-08-01 beat | 0.89 | 0.92 | +2.8% | +0.2% | -0.4% | +1.4% | +1.1% |
| 2025-04-25 beat | 0.86 | 0.91 | +6.1% | +3.0% | +1.3% | -3.7% | -1.6% |
| 2025-01-31 beat | 0.89 | 0.91 | +2.3% | -6.0% | -4.6% | +0.1% | +5.0% |
| 2024-10-25 beat | 0.88 | 0.91 | +2.9% | -3.2% | -4.1% | -2.4% | -0.3% |
| 2024-07-26 beat | 0.87 | 0.91 | +4.7% | +2.6% | +3.0% | +3.4% | +5.7% |
| 2024-04-26 beat | 0.81 | 0.86 | +5.8% | +1.9% | +1.9% | +2.1% | +1.0% |
| 2024-01-26 beat | 0.85 | 0.87 | +2.6% | +0.4% | +2.0% | +2.2% | +4.3% |
| 2023-10-27 beat | 0.80 | 0.86 | +7.3% | +0.3% | -1.8% | +4.2% | +8.5% |
| 2023-07-28 beat | 0.75 | 0.77 | +3.3% | -2.5% | -1.9% | +0.8% | -2.6% |
| 2023-04-28 beat | 0.70 | 0.73 | +4.6% | +1.5% | +2.4% | +1.0% | -6.1% |
| 2023-01-27 beat | 0.77 | 0.77 | +0.5% | -3.5% | -5.2% | +3.8% | +2.4% |
| 2022-10-28 beat | 0.73 | 0.74 | +1.0% | -2.2% | +1.9% | -1.9% | +1.8% |
| 2022-07-29 beat | 0.71 | 0.72 | +1.3% | -0.7% | -0.6% | +2.1% | +1.1% |
| 2022-04-29 miss | 0.75 | 0.74 | -0.7% | -4.3% | -5.1% | -0.3% | +2.3% |
| 2022-01-28 beat | 0.79 | 0.79 | +0.1% | -0.9% | +0.4% | -2.3% | -8.4% |
| 2021-10-29 beat | 0.80 | 0.81 | +1.8% | +0.2% | -0.9% | +2.2% | -1.5% |
| 2021-07-30 beat | 0.80 | 0.80 | +0.1% | -3.6% | -4.8% | -1.1% | -2.3% |
| 2021-04-30 beat | 0.79 | 0.80 | +1.2% | -0.3% | +1.1% | +1.8% | +2.2% |
| 2021-01-29 beat | 0.76 | 0.77 | +0.7% | -0.3% | -1.5% | +2.4% | -3.3% |
| 2020-10-30 beat | 0.70 | 0.79 | +12.2% | +4.3% | +2.9% | +5.2% | +9.3% |
| 2020-07-31 beat | 0.69 | 0.74 | +6.6% | -0.3% | +0.4% | -1.2% | +2.7% |
| 2020-05-01 beat | 0.73 | 0.75 | +2.7% | -0.1% | -2.5% | +1.2% | +5.7% |
| 2020-01-31 beat | 0.73 | 0.73 | +0.2% | +6.0% | +6.2% | +3.0% | -2.7% |
| 2019-11-01 beat | 0.70 | 0.71 | +1.3% | -1.7% | -2.6% | -0.3% | +0.7% |
| 2019-07-26 miss | 0.72 | 0.72 | -0.6% | +0.0% | +2.4% | -3.4% | -1.2% |
| 2019-04-26 beat | 0.66 | 0.67 | +1.5% | +1.3% | +3.8% | +0.9% | -1.7% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.