CMA chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -1.9% | +0.6% | 5.5% | 56% |
| Day 2 | +0.2% | +1.4% | 2.5% | 67% |
| Day 3 | +1.4% | +1.2% | 0.9% | 100% |
| 5-day | +1.1% | +1.7% | 5.6% | 56% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-20 beat | 1.25 | 1.46 | +17.0% | — | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-17 beat | 1.28 | 1.48 | +15.9% | +3.6% | +1.4% | +4.4% | +1.1% |
| 2025-07-18 beat | 1.22 | 1.30 | +6.0% | +0.4% | +4.6% | +4.1% | +3.7% |
| 2025-04-21 beat | 1.13 | 1.25 | +10.7% | +1.4% | -4.4% | +6.4% | +14.9% |
| 2025-01-22 miss | 1.26 | 1.20 | -4.7% | -4.4% | -5.6% | +4.1% | +4.4% |
| 2024-10-18 beat | 1.16 | 1.37 | +17.8% | +2.5% | +3.7% | -4.9% | +5.2% |
| 2024-07-19 beat | 1.19 | 1.49 | +25.2% | -10.8% | -10.5% | +5.9% | +12.2% |
| 2024-04-18 beat | 1.14 | 1.29 | +12.9% | +3.5% | +1.7% | +2.9% | +8.2% |
| 2024-01-19 beat | 1.39 | 1.46 | +4.8% | -0.2% | +0.6% | +4.4% | -4.1% |
| 2023-10-20 beat | 1.70 | 1.84 | +8.3% | -2.1% | -8.5% | +0.6% | +18.0% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.