DOW chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -1.5% | -0.9% | 7.5% | 20% |
| Day 2 | +0.2% | +1.1% | 1.8% | 70% |
| Day 3 | +0.1% | +0.4% | 2.8% | 50% |
| 5-day | -0.8% | -0.2% | 9.7% | 40% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 beat | 1.28 | 1.44 | +12.6% | +1.8% | -1.1% | -2.6% | +4.7% |
| 2026-04-23 beat | -0.29 | -0.14 | +51.7% | +1.5% | -0.7% | +5.1% | -6.5% |
| 2026-01-29 beat | -0.51 | -0.34 | +33.7% | -4.2% | -2.2% | +12.7% | +12.7% |
| 2025-10-23 beat | -0.30 | -0.19 | +36.8% | +8.1% | +12.9% | -2.9% | -9.4% |
| 2025-07-24 miss | -0.17 | -0.42 | -146.2% | -10.5% | -17.5% | -7.1% | +0.2% |
| 2025-04-24 beat | -0.01 | 0.02 | +249.8% | -1.7% | +2.6% | +2.6% | -4.8% |
| 2025-01-30 miss | 0.24 | — | -100.0% | -4.2% | -6.1% | +0.6% | -6.5% |
| 2024-10-24 miss | 0.47 | 0.47 | -0.2% | +1.0% | -1.0% | -3.2% | -10.8% |
| 2024-07-25 miss | 0.72 | 0.68 | -5.1% | -4.8% | -0.9% | +0.8% | +1.3% |
| 2024-04-25 beat | 0.45 | 0.56 | +23.2% | +1.3% | -0.9% | +0.7% | +2.3% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.