EDIT chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +1.9% | +0.2% | 14.6% | 50% |
| Day 2 | +2.9% | +3.4% | 6.9% | 60% |
| Day 3 | -1.5% | -0.8% | 4.4% | 50% |
| 5-day | +2.0% | +5.0% | 17.5% | 70% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 beat | -0.28 | -0.15 | +46.2% | +2.5% | +5.5% | -3.1% | +11.4% |
| 2026-05-05 miss | -0.24 | -0.26 | -7.6% | +0.7% | +1.3% | -3.6% | -1.6% |
| 2026-03-09 beat | -0.21 | -0.06 | +72.1% | -1.0% | +16.0% | +9.5% | +19.0% |
| 2025-11-10 beat | -0.38 | -0.28 | +27.2% | +9.5% | +2.0% | +2.4% | +3.2% |
| 2025-08-12 beat | -0.38 | -0.32 | +15.3% | +7.0% | +34.5% | -13.3% | -12.7% |
| 2025-05-12 miss | -0.59 | -0.92 | -54.9% | +0.6% | -2.6% | +9.3% | +45.3% |
| 2025-03-05 miss | -0.33 | -0.55 | -67.4% | -5.9% | -13.2% | -23.0% | -42.1% |
| 2024-11-04 beat | -0.77 | -0.75 | +2.5% | -0.3% | -1.0% | +14.6% | -30.9% |
| 2024-08-07 miss | -0.71 | -0.82 | -14.8% | +4.3% | -12.2% | -9.0% | -12.7% |
| 2024-05-08 miss | -0.64 | -0.76 | -18.2% | -4.9% | -11.4% | +19.2% | +5.3% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.