EDIT chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +3.8% | +1.9% | 10.9% | 63% |
| Day 2 | +1.0% | +0.0% | 6.4% | 47% |
| Day 3 | +0.1% | +0.5% | 4.7% | 53% |
| 5-day | +1.4% | +2.2% | 16.7% | 57% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 beat | -0.28 | -0.15 | +46.2% | +2.5% | +5.5% | -3.1% | +11.4% |
| 2026-05-05 miss | -0.24 | -0.26 | -7.6% | +0.7% | +1.3% | -3.6% | -1.6% |
| 2026-03-09 beat | -0.21 | -0.06 | +72.1% | -1.0% | +16.0% | +9.5% | +19.0% |
| 2025-11-10 beat | -0.38 | -0.28 | +27.2% | +9.5% | +2.0% | +2.4% | +3.2% |
| 2025-08-12 beat | -0.38 | -0.32 | +15.3% | +7.0% | +34.5% | -13.3% | -12.7% |
| 2025-05-12 miss | -0.59 | -0.92 | -54.9% | +0.6% | -2.6% | +9.3% | +45.3% |
| 2025-03-05 miss | -0.33 | -0.55 | -67.4% | -5.9% | -13.2% | -23.0% | -42.1% |
| 2024-11-04 beat | -0.77 | -0.75 | +2.5% | -0.3% | -1.0% | +14.6% | -30.9% |
| 2024-08-07 miss | -0.71 | -0.82 | -14.8% | +4.3% | -12.2% | -9.0% | -12.7% |
| 2024-05-08 miss | -0.64 | -0.76 | -18.2% | -4.9% | -11.4% | +19.2% | +5.3% |
| 2024-02-28 beat | -0.48 | -0.23 | +52.2% | +15.6% | +24.9% | -18.0% | -33.0% |
| 2023-11-03 beat | -0.58 | -0.55 | +4.5% | +3.1% | +18.2% | -7.7% | +32.1% |
| 2023-08-02 beat | -0.77 | -0.56 | +26.9% | -1.7% | +5.7% | -3.3% | -2.5% |
| 2023-05-05 beat | -0.81 | -0.71 | +12.1% | +2.5% | +12.0% | -1.9% | +4.9% |
| 2023-02-22 miss | -0.81 | -0.88 | -8.1% | +3.1% | +6.2% | -10.6% | -23.9% |
| 2022-11-02 beat | -0.85 | -0.81 | +5.1% | +1.6% | +1.1% | -16.8% | -20.5% |
| 2022-08-03 beat | -0.80 | -0.78 | +3.1% | +6.4% | +13.4% | -0.7% | -17.5% |
| 2022-05-04 beat | -0.79 | -0.74 | +5.9% | +1.2% | +11.5% | -36.6% | -24.7% |
| 2022-02-24 beat | -0.73 | -0.61 | +16.1% | -7.9% | +10.1% | +5.5% | +18.3% |
| 2021-11-08 beat | -0.81 | -0.57 | +29.8% | +0.7% | +8.2% | -11.3% | -21.4% |
| 2021-08-04 beat | -0.81 | -0.81 | +0.3% | -1.8% | +9.4% | +39.8% | +58.4% |
| 2021-05-05 miss | -0.71 | -0.86 | -21.8% | +1.0% | +0.2% | -8.6% | -3.0% |
| 2021-02-25 miss | -0.88 | -1.00 | -13.6% | -0.7% | -9.9% | -9.8% | -9.6% |
| 2020-11-05 beat | -0.63 | 0.12 | +119.1% | +2.3% | -3.4% | -4.1% | +41.6% |
| 2020-08-06 beat | -0.82 | -0.43 | +47.4% | -5.0% | -5.8% | +0.6% | -15.7% |
| 2020-05-07 beat | -0.81 | -0.69 | +14.8% | +1.1% | -3.6% | +1.0% | +12.5% |
| 2020-02-26 miss | 0.06 | -0.74 | -1380.9% | -2.8% | -6.4% | +19.9% | -4.9% |
| 2019-11-12 beat | -0.73 | -0.66 | +9.3% | +0.0% | +3.0% | +5.2% | +30.1% |
| 2019-08-06 miss | -0.62 | -0.69 | -10.8% | -4.6% | -0.5% | +2.4% | -0.2% |
| 2019-05-07 beat | -0.64 | -0.60 | +5.8% | -3.8% | +1.8% | -9.9% | -10.8% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.