IMO chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -2.4% | -2.5% | 2.6% | 20% |
| Day 2 | +0.3% | +0.4% | 1.4% | 70% |
| Day 3 | +0.4% | +0.8% | 1.9% | 60% |
| 5-day | +0.1% | +0.3% | 4.6% | 50% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 beat | 4.17 | 4.52 | +8.4% | +0.5% | +0.6% | -3.6% | +1.4% |
| 2026-05-01 miss | 2.40 | 1.94 | -19.3% | -5.0% | -4.1% | -1.2% | -3.2% |
| 2026-01-30 beat | 1.89 | 1.97 | +4.1% | -2.6% | -4.2% | +11.3% | +17.8% |
| 2025-10-31 beat | 1.96 | 2.17 | +10.6% | +1.2% | -3.3% | +5.9% | +7.6% |
| 2025-08-01 beat | 1.61 | 1.86 | +15.8% | -0.8% | -0.2% | +2.4% | +7.1% |
| 2025-05-02 beat | 2.16 | 2.52 | +16.6% | +4.0% | +1.0% | +3.5% | +7.0% |
| 2025-01-31 beat | 2.18 | 2.37 | +8.8% | +0.8% | -6.7% | +1.3% | -1.4% |
| 2024-11-01 beat | 2.01 | 2.33 | +15.7% | +1.9% | -5.0% | +3.6% | +3.0% |
| 2024-08-02 beat | 1.94 | 2.11 | +8.8% | -2.1% | -1.6% | +6.4% | +7.0% |
| 2024-04-26 beat | 2.09 | 2.23 | +6.5% | -0.4% | -0.8% | -3.7% | +0.1% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.