IMO chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -0.6% | -1.5% | 4.0% | 37% |
| Day 2 | +0.5% | +0.2% | 2.2% | 57% |
| Day 3 | +0.2% | +0.2% | 2.6% | 53% |
| 5-day | +0.5% | -1.1% | 6.4% | 47% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 beat | 4.17 | 4.52 | +8.4% | +0.5% | +0.6% | -3.6% | +1.4% |
| 2026-05-01 miss | 2.40 | 1.94 | -19.3% | -5.0% | -4.1% | -1.2% | -3.2% |
| 2026-01-30 beat | 1.89 | 1.97 | +4.1% | -2.6% | -4.2% | +11.3% | +17.8% |
| 2025-10-31 beat | 1.96 | 2.17 | +10.6% | +1.2% | -3.3% | +5.9% | +7.6% |
| 2025-08-01 beat | 1.61 | 1.86 | +15.8% | -0.8% | -0.2% | +2.4% | +7.1% |
| 2025-05-02 beat | 2.16 | 2.52 | +16.6% | +4.0% | +1.0% | +3.5% | +7.0% |
| 2025-01-31 beat | 2.18 | 2.37 | +8.8% | +0.8% | -6.7% | +1.3% | -1.4% |
| 2024-11-01 beat | 2.01 | 2.33 | +15.7% | +1.9% | -5.0% | +3.6% | +3.0% |
| 2024-08-02 beat | 1.94 | 2.11 | +8.8% | -2.1% | -1.6% | +6.4% | +7.0% |
| 2024-04-26 beat | 2.09 | 2.23 | +6.5% | -0.4% | -0.8% | -3.7% | +0.1% |
| 2024-02-02 beat | 2.09 | 2.47 | +17.9% | +0.5% | -1.3% | +3.2% | +12.0% |
| 2023-10-27 beat | 2.60 | 2.76 | +6.1% | +5.7% | -2.0% | -0.3% | +0.0% |
| 2023-07-28 miss | 1.34 | 1.15 | -14.4% | -0.3% | +4.9% | -1.8% | +3.0% |
| 2023-04-28 beat | 1.85 | 2.13 | +15.3% | +1.4% | -0.4% | -8.4% | -8.5% |
| 2023-01-31 beat | 2.61 | 2.86 | +9.5% | -1.4% | +3.9% | -6.4% | -6.4% |
| 2022-10-28 beat | 2.85 | 2.91 | +2.2% | +8.4% | +8.6% | +5.8% | +6.1% |
| 2022-07-29 beat | 3.35 | 3.63 | +8.5% | +1.4% | +4.1% | -11.4% | +8.5% |
| 2022-04-29 miss | 1.79 | 1.75 | -2.2% | +1.8% | +0.1% | +5.2% | +10.6% |
| 2022-02-01 miss | 1.34 | 1.18 | -12.1% | +2.6% | +5.7% | -0.1% | +4.2% |
| 2021-10-29 miss | 1.29 | 1.28 | -0.4% | +0.6% | -7.4% | +0.1% | -2.3% |
| 2021-07-30 miss | 0.59 | 0.50 | -15.5% | -0.8% | -2.1% | -0.7% | -3.6% |
| 2021-04-30 miss | 0.55 | 0.53 | -2.8% | +1.3% | +4.7% | +8.3% | +18.8% |
| 2021-02-02 miss | 0.06 | 0.03 | -41.6% | -0.8% | -3.3% | +6.7% | +21.5% |
| 2020-10-30 beat | -0.14 | -0.01 | +92.8% | -0.1% | +6.4% | +6.0% | +32.8% |
| 2020-07-31 beat | -0.87 | -0.35 | +60.2% | -1.4% | -4.3% | +3.9% | +5.1% |
| 2020-05-01 beat | -0.02 | 0.04 | +279.2% | -3.8% | -4.4% | -1.4% | +9.2% |
| 2020-01-31 miss | 0.35 | 0.35 | -1.8% | -1.3% | -3.0% | -0.8% | -6.0% |
| 2019-11-01 beat | 0.53 | 0.56 | +4.9% | -0.8% | +1.5% | +5.7% | -4.4% |
| 2019-08-02 miss | 0.75 | 0.70 | -6.7% | +1.2% | -3.5% | -3.6% | -5.8% |
| 2019-04-26 miss | 0.46 | 0.38 | -17.6% | -2.4% | -1.8% | -1.3% | -6.5% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.