IP chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -3.4% | -3.3% | 7.7% | 30% |
| Day 2 | -0.3% | -0.1% | 3.0% | 40% |
| Day 3 | +0.8% | +1.2% | 2.7% | 70% |
| 5-day | -1.4% | -2.7% | 10.1% | 40% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 beat | -0.04 | 0.04 | +205.4% | +3.2% | +1.2% | -6.1% | -8.9% |
| 2026-04-30 beat | 0.14 | 0.15 | +5.4% | -5.9% | -9.4% | +8.7% | +10.7% |
| 2026-01-29 miss | 0.25 | -0.08 | -131.9% | +0.9% | -6.0% | +13.8% | +10.0% |
| 2025-10-30 miss | 0.59 | -0.43 | -173.0% | -3.5% | -12.7% | -5.4% | +1.4% |
| 2025-07-31 miss | 0.41 | 0.20 | -51.1% | -4.8% | -12.8% | +2.8% | +6.3% |
| 2025-04-30 miss | 0.37 | 0.23 | -38.0% | -7.5% | -4.1% | -3.6% | +4.7% |
| 2025-01-30 miss | 0.01 | -0.02 | -300.0% | -4.8% | -1.6% | -2.3% | -3.0% |
| 2024-10-31 beat | 0.25 | 0.44 | +74.8% | +7.1% | +13.3% | +5.2% | +5.3% |
| 2024-07-24 beat | 0.42 | 0.55 | +31.9% | -0.8% | +0.8% | +0.4% | +3.6% |
| 2024-04-25 miss | 0.22 | 0.17 | -23.3% | -2.7% | -2.6% | +6.8% | +35.6% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-14); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.