MAC chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -1.6% | -1.3% | 6.9% | 30% |
| Day 2 | -0.7% | -1.5% | 3.5% | 40% |
| Day 3 | +0.2% | +0.4% | 2.8% | 50% |
| 5-day | -1.4% | -0.2% | 7.1% | 50% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 miss | -0.06 | -0.12 | -105.0% | +0.0% | -0.9% | -2.9% | -9.2% |
| 2026-05-06 miss | -0.10 | -0.16 | -58.6% | -1.4% | -3.9% | +4.5% | +9.5% |
| 2026-02-18 beat | 0.01 | 0.03 | +488.0% | +1.1% | +3.2% | +4.9% | -8.3% |
| 2025-11-04 miss | -0.10 | -0.16 | -60.9% | -1.6% | -0.2% | -0.7% | +0.5% |
| 2025-08-11 miss | -0.09 | -0.12 | -29.7% | +0.4% | +4.6% | -0.3% | +4.6% |
| 2025-05-12 miss | -0.11 | -0.14 | -24.5% | +3.1% | +10.4% | -4.1% | -1.8% |
| 2025-02-27 beat | 0.01 | 0.03 | +528.0% | +1.7% | -8.9% | -4.0% | -6.8% |
| 2024-11-06 miss | -0.12 | -0.42 | -235.4% | +4.1% | -1.7% | +2.8% | +18.8% |
| 2024-07-31 miss | -0.09 | -0.34 | -275.1% | -0.1% | -4.3% | -8.7% | -2.4% |
| 2024-04-30 miss | -0.13 | -0.40 | -196.9% | -4.4% | -14.1% | +10.8% | +7.8% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.