MAT chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -1.1% | +1.9% | 11.8% | 60% |
| Day 2 | +1.4% | +1.3% | 2.7% | 70% |
| Day 3 | +0.7% | +0.8% | 2.3% | 60% |
| 5-day | +3.2% | +0.9% | 13.7% | 60% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 miss | 0.04 | 0.01 | -77.3% | +5.3% | -2.7% | +1.3% | -1.1% |
| 2026-04-29 beat | -0.21 | -0.20 | +4.1% | -1.5% | +1.3% | -0.5% | -1.5% |
| 2026-02-10 miss | 0.55 | 0.39 | -28.8% | -28.4% | -25.0% | +10.3% | +1.6% |
| 2025-10-21 miss | 1.06 | 0.89 | -15.9% | -6.7% | -2.8% | +4.0% | +3.8% |
| 2025-07-23 beat | 0.16 | 0.19 | +21.1% | -6.5% | -16.4% | +0.7% | +8.7% |
| 2025-05-05 beat | -0.10 | -0.03 | +70.4% | -1.3% | +2.8% | +18.1% | +11.3% |
| 2025-02-04 beat | 0.20 | 0.35 | +73.9% | +17.7% | +15.3% | +4.2% | +0.8% |
| 2024-10-23 beat | 0.95 | 1.14 | +20.4% | +3.7% | +4.4% | +9.7% | +0.6% |
| 2024-07-23 beat | 0.17 | 0.19 | +10.8% | +2.7% | +9.8% | +1.9% | +1.5% |
| 2024-04-23 beat | -0.12 | -0.05 | +59.0% | +2.6% | +2.4% | -5.7% | -8.6% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.