META chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +0.3% | -1.1% | 13.6% | 50% |
| Day 2 | -0.2% | -0.4% | 2.4% | 40% |
| Day 3 | -0.1% | +0.0% | 3.0% | 50% |
| 5-day | +0.5% | +2.2% | 14.0% | 65% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 miss | 7.22 | 6.18 | -14.4% | -10.2% | -8.0% | +9.4% | +7.2% |
| 2026-04-29 beat | 6.82 | 7.31 | +7.2% | -7.4% | -8.6% | +0.8% | -1.9% |
| 2026-01-28 beat | 8.22 | 8.88 | +8.0% | +10.3% | +10.4% | -9.2% | -11.5% |
| 2025-10-29 beat | 6.67 | 7.25 | +8.7% | -11.0% | -11.3% | -7.1% | -3.8% |
| 2025-07-30 beat | 5.86 | 7.14 | +21.8% | +11.5% | +11.3% | -1.5% | -4.5% |
| 2025-04-30 beat | 5.21 | 6.43 | +23.5% | +7.8% | +4.2% | +4.5% | +17.2% |
| 2025-01-29 beat | 6.74 | 8.02 | +19.0% | +3.0% | +1.6% | +3.6% | -4.7% |
| 2024-10-30 beat | 5.30 | 6.03 | +13.9% | -1.1% | -4.1% | +4.2% | +4.4% |
| 2024-07-31 beat | 4.76 | 5.16 | +8.4% | +9.7% | +4.8% | +2.4% | +4.7% |
| 2024-04-24 beat | 4.36 | 4.71 | +8.1% | -14.6% | -10.6% | +0.1% | +8.3% |
| 2024-02-01 beat | 4.94 | 5.33 | +7.9% | +16.4% | +20.3% | -1.4% | +3.2% |
| 2023-10-25 beat | 3.60 | 4.39 | +22.0% | -1.5% | -3.7% | +7.8% | +16.1% |
| 2023-07-26 beat | 2.91 | 2.98 | +2.5% | +8.9% | +4.4% | +0.5% | -8.4% |
| 2023-04-26 beat | 1.98 | 2.20 | +11.2% | +14.6% | +13.9% | -2.1% | +9.8% |
| 2023-02-01 miss | 2.24 | 1.76 | -21.5% | +19.8% | +23.3% | -5.7% | -2.1% |
| 2022-10-26 miss | 1.85 | 1.64 | -11.3% | -24.5% | -24.6% | -9.2% | +11.1% |
| 2022-07-27 miss | 2.55 | 2.46 | -3.6% | -5.0% | -5.2% | +6.1% | +0.7% |
| 2022-04-27 beat | 2.53 | 2.72 | +7.6% | +16.0% | +17.6% | +1.2% | -5.2% |
| 2022-02-02 miss | 3.83 | 3.67 | -4.1% | -24.3% | -26.4% | -4.1% | -21.2% |
| 2021-10-25 beat | 3.17 | 3.22 | +1.5% | -0.1% | -3.9% | +3.9% | +8.0% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.