MMC chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -1.5% | -0.4% | 3.3% | 40% |
| Day 2 | -0.4% | +0.0% | 1.7% | 50% |
| Day 3 | +0.2% | -0.1% | 1.5% | 50% |
| 5-day | -1.7% | -1.9% | 3.2% | 30% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-16 beat | 1.78 | 1.85 | +4.1% | -4.9% | -8.5% | +0.9% | -2.0% |
| 2025-07-17 beat | 2.41 | 2.45 | +1.6% | +1.4% | -0.4% | -1.3% | -1.8% |
| 2025-04-17 beat | 3.00 | 3.06 | +2.1% | -5.4% | -4.9% | -0.4% | +5.3% |
| 2025-01-30 beat | 1.76 | 1.87 | +6.0% | +1.9% | +0.7% | +2.3% | +8.4% |
| 2024-10-17 beat | 1.62 | 1.63 | +0.8% | +0.9% | -0.4% | -2.0% | -2.1% |
| 2024-07-18 beat | 2.39 | 2.41 | +0.7% | -1.3% | -1.5% | -0.6% | +2.1% |
| 2024-04-18 beat | 2.80 | 2.89 | +3.3% | +4.2% | +2.1% | -0.1% | +4.1% |
| 2024-01-25 beat | 1.63 | 1.68 | +3.4% | -3.6% | -3.8% | +1.4% | +6.5% |
| 2023-10-19 beat | 1.39 | 1.57 | +12.9% | +1.1% | +0.7% | -2.0% | +3.6% |
| 2023-07-20 beat | 2.12 | 2.20 | +4.0% | -0.6% | +1.0% | +0.2% | -0.2% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.