MPC chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +1.6% | +3.1% | 4.5% | 75% |
| Day 2 | -1.0% | -1.2% | 3.2% | 40% |
| Day 3 | +0.0% | +0.1% | 2.4% | 50% |
| 5-day | +3.0% | +3.8% | 6.9% | 65% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 beat | 13.95 | 17.73 | +27.1% | +0.6% | +1.8% | +7.6% | +23.8% |
| 2026-05-05 beat | 0.75 | 1.65 | +120.6% | +1.4% | +3.2% | -3.3% | +2.5% |
| 2026-02-03 beat | 2.71 | 4.07 | +50.1% | +2.1% | +6.0% | +8.8% | +15.9% |
| 2025-11-04 miss | 3.16 | 3.01 | -4.9% | -8.5% | -6.1% | +8.9% | +3.5% |
| 2025-08-05 beat | 3.22 | 3.96 | +23.0% | +0.9% | +0.6% | -5.8% | +6.0% |
| 2025-05-06 beat | -0.54 | -0.24 | +55.8% | +1.0% | +0.9% | +12.7% | +9.5% |
| 2025-02-04 beat | 0.02 | 0.77 | +3730.8% | +0.0% | +6.7% | -1.0% | -12.3% |
| 2024-11-05 beat | 1.09 | 1.87 | +71.9% | +5.1% | +3.2% | +3.8% | +0.4% |
| 2024-08-06 beat | 3.09 | 4.12 | +33.3% | +2.0% | +5.5% | +2.8% | -1.4% |
| 2024-04-30 miss | 2.58 | 2.58 | -0.1% | -3.0% | -9.4% | -0.4% | -5.3% |
| 2024-01-30 beat | 2.22 | 3.98 | +79.2% | +1.3% | +6.1% | -1.9% | -0.4% |
| 2023-10-31 beat | 7.75 | 8.14 | +5.1% | +1.0% | +3.0% | -3.4% | -1.4% |
| 2023-08-01 beat | 4.59 | 5.32 | +16.0% | -0.9% | +1.4% | +5.1% | +6.1% |
| 2023-05-02 beat | 5.60 | 6.09 | +8.7% | -0.4% | -4.5% | -5.2% | -9.5% |
| 2023-01-31 beat | 5.63 | 6.65 | +18.1% | +1.9% | -0.5% | -4.9% | +0.9% |
| 2022-11-01 beat | 7.02 | 7.81 | +11.2% | +0.2% | +4.9% | -0.1% | +0.9% |
| 2022-08-02 beat | 8.50 | 10.61 | +24.9% | +0.6% | +3.7% | -0.3% | +7.6% |
| 2022-05-03 beat | 1.28 | 1.45 | +13.6% | -0.5% | +4.0% | -1.0% | +12.5% |
| 2022-02-02 beat | 0.56 | 1.30 | +131.4% | +3.1% | +6.1% | +1.6% | -1.0% |
| 2021-11-02 beat | 0.70 | 0.73 | +4.1% | -0.4% | -3.9% | +3.9% | -2.0% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.