MPC chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +0.6% | +0.9% | 4.1% | 60% |
| Day 2 | -0.4% | +0.1% | 3.1% | 50% |
| Day 3 | +0.2% | +0.4% | 2.4% | 60% |
| 5-day | +1.6% | +2.2% | 8.2% | 57% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 beat | 13.95 | 17.73 | +27.1% | +0.6% | +1.8% | +7.6% | +23.8% |
| 2026-05-05 beat | 0.75 | 1.65 | +120.6% | +1.4% | +3.2% | -3.3% | +2.5% |
| 2026-02-03 beat | 2.71 | 4.07 | +50.1% | +2.1% | +6.0% | +8.8% | +15.9% |
| 2025-11-04 miss | 3.16 | 3.01 | -4.9% | -8.5% | -6.1% | +8.9% | +3.5% |
| 2025-08-05 beat | 3.22 | 3.96 | +23.0% | +0.9% | +0.6% | -5.8% | +6.0% |
| 2025-05-06 beat | -0.54 | -0.24 | +55.8% | +1.0% | +0.9% | +12.7% | +9.5% |
| 2025-02-04 beat | 0.02 | 0.77 | +3730.8% | +0.0% | +6.7% | -1.0% | -12.3% |
| 2024-11-05 beat | 1.09 | 1.87 | +71.9% | +5.1% | +3.2% | +3.8% | +0.4% |
| 2024-08-06 beat | 3.09 | 4.12 | +33.3% | +2.0% | +5.5% | +2.8% | -1.4% |
| 2024-04-30 miss | 2.58 | 2.58 | -0.1% | -3.0% | -9.4% | -0.4% | -5.3% |
| 2024-01-30 beat | 2.22 | 3.98 | +79.2% | +1.3% | +6.1% | -1.9% | -0.4% |
| 2023-10-31 beat | 7.75 | 8.14 | +5.1% | +1.0% | +3.0% | -3.4% | -1.4% |
| 2023-08-01 beat | 4.59 | 5.32 | +16.0% | -0.9% | +1.4% | +5.1% | +6.1% |
| 2023-05-02 beat | 5.60 | 6.09 | +8.7% | -0.4% | -4.5% | -5.2% | -9.5% |
| 2023-01-31 beat | 5.63 | 6.65 | +18.1% | +1.9% | -0.5% | -4.9% | +0.9% |
| 2022-11-01 beat | 7.02 | 7.81 | +11.2% | +0.2% | +4.9% | -0.1% | +0.9% |
| 2022-08-02 beat | 8.50 | 10.61 | +24.9% | +0.6% | +3.7% | -0.3% | +7.6% |
| 2022-05-03 beat | 1.28 | 1.45 | +13.6% | -0.5% | +4.0% | -1.0% | +12.5% |
| 2022-02-02 beat | 0.56 | 1.30 | +131.4% | +3.1% | +6.1% | +1.6% | -1.0% |
| 2021-11-02 beat | 0.70 | 0.73 | +4.1% | -0.4% | -3.9% | +3.9% | -2.0% |
| 2021-08-04 beat | 0.38 | 0.67 | +76.1% | -2.1% | -2.8% | +8.8% | +6.5% |
| 2021-05-04 beat | -0.71 | -0.20 | +71.7% | -2.0% | +0.2% | +2.3% | +10.4% |
| 2021-02-02 beat | -1.24 | -0.94 | +24.4% | +2.3% | +3.9% | +8.2% | +25.2% |
| 2020-11-02 beat | -1.74 | -1.00 | +42.5% | -2.0% | +6.1% | +16.5% | +29.6% |
| 2020-08-03 beat | -1.76 | -1.33 | +24.3% | +0.5% | +1.0% | -3.7% | -9.3% |
| 2020-05-05 beat | -0.27 | -0.16 | +41.4% | +8.8% | -1.2% | +3.4% | +22.2% |
| 2020-01-29 beat | 0.85 | 1.56 | +83.8% | +3.2% | +1.2% | +3.6% | -11.5% |
| 2019-10-31 beat | 1.33 | 1.63 | +22.2% | +0.6% | -3.4% | +3.6% | -4.8% |
| 2019-08-01 beat | 1.33 | 1.73 | +30.2% | +2.7% | -1.8% | -10.5% | -11.1% |
| 2019-05-08 miss | -0.01 | -0.09 | -981.7% | -2.6% | -7.1% | -7.3% | -14.9% |
| 2019-02-07 beat | 1.94 | 2.41 | +24.0% | +0.0% | -4.7% | +0.5% | -7.1% |
| 2018-11-01 beat | 1.70 | 1.70 | +0.1% | -0.9% | +0.9% | -4.8% | -9.0% |
| 2018-07-26 beat | 2.04 | 2.27 | +11.2% | +1.6% | +7.3% | -0.5% | +4.6% |
| 2018-04-30 miss | 0.13 | 0.08 | -36.6% | -7.3% | -8.0% | +2.1% | +6.2% |
| 2018-02-01 beat | 0.99 | 1.03 | +4.0% | +0.7% | -0.8% | -8.6% | -3.7% |
| 2017-10-26 beat | 1.48 | 1.77 | +20.1% | +1.9% | +1.5% | +8.6% | +8.0% |
| 2017-07-27 miss | 1.06 | 1.03 | -2.9% | -2.5% | +0.9% | -0.5% | -7.9% |
| 2017-04-27 beat | -0.04 | 0.06 | +238.2% | -0.3% | +2.9% | -2.9% | +3.5% |
| 2017-02-01 beat | 0.27 | 0.43 | +61.1% | +3.4% | -0.7% | +3.0% | +7.5% |
| 2016-10-27 miss | 0.81 | 0.58 | -28.1% | -0.5% | -3.3% | -3.8% | +9.9% |
| 2016-07-28 beat | 0.98 | 1.07 | +9.7% | +1.0% | +0.9% | +6.4% | +9.6% |
| 2016-04-28 miss | 0.16 | 0.06 | -59.5% | -2.1% | -0.9% | -11.9% | -14.3% |
| 2016-02-03 beat | 0.69 | 0.79 | +14.2% | -1.2% | -7.6% | -14.9% | -0.4% |
| 2015-10-29 beat | 1.81 | 1.94 | +7.0% | -1.8% | +2.8% | +8.6% | +14.0% |
| 2015-07-30 miss | 1.75 | 1.52 | -13.1% | -4.6% | -3.4% | -3.3% | -12.5% |
| 2015-04-30 beat | 1.43 | 1.62 | +13.3% | +1.6% | -3.9% | +4.2% | +5.1% |
| 2015-02-04 beat | 0.73 | 1.14 | +55.2% | +0.2% | +0.4% | +4.9% | +2.4% |
| 2014-10-30 beat | 1.14 | 1.21 | +6.2% | +2.4% | +3.7% | +2.7% | +0.2% |
| 2014-07-31 beat | 1.08 | 1.48 | +37.0% | +3.0% | +5.7% | +3.6% | +9.0% |
| 2014-05-01 miss | 0.53 | 0.41 | -22.9% | -4.2% | +2.7% | -2.8% | -6.0% |
| 2014-01-29 beat | 0.57 | 1.05 | +84.2% | +1.5% | +4.0% | -4.9% | -2.9% |
| 2013-10-31 miss | 0.34 | 0.30 | -13.1% | -0.2% | -1.2% | -1.7% | +22.0% |
| 2013-08-01 beat | 0.95 | 0.98 | +2.4% | +0.7% | +2.4% | -3.5% | -3.4% |
| 2013-04-30 beat | 1.08 | 1.09 | +0.9% | -3.0% | -4.9% | +3.9% | +6.6% |
| 2013-01-30 beat | 1.02 | 1.13 | +11.2% | +1.6% | +1.3% | +6.7% | +16.6% |
| 2012-11-01 beat | 1.59 | 1.66 | +4.1% | -0.1% | -1.6% | +0.5% | +10.2% |
| 2012-07-31 beat | 1.23 | 1.26 | +2.8% | -0.1% | -0.4% | +6.6% | +5.1% |
| 2012-05-01 beat | 0.66 | 0.85 | +28.9% | +2.7% | -1.0% | -6.5% | -12.5% |
| 2012-02-01 miss | 0.06 | -0.10 | -278.0% | +9.1% | +9.6% | +7.3% | +0.7% |
| 2011-11-01 beat | 1.25 | 1.58 | +25.9% | -1.1% | +0.3% | +5.9% | -5.7% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.