MRNA chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -1.8% | -2.1% | 9.0% | 40% |
| Day 2 | +0.5% | +0.8% | 5.0% | 70% |
| Day 3 | -0.5% | -0.1% | 4.0% | 50% |
| 5-day | -1.1% | +4.1% | 17.9% | 60% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 beat | -2.06 | -1.97 | +4.3% | -0.1% | -5.4% | +7.9% | +156.0% |
| 2026-04-30 beat | -3.88 | -3.40 | +12.4% | +1.5% | -1.2% | +19.8% | +0.6% |
| 2026-02-13 beat | -2.64 | -2.11 | +20.2% | +4.3% | +5.3% | +19.1% | +27.7% |
| 2025-11-06 beat | -2.16 | -0.51 | +76.4% | +7.1% | +3.3% | +2.6% | +15.0% |
| 2025-08-01 beat | -3.00 | -2.13 | +29.0% | -6.7% | -6.6% | -5.4% | -12.4% |
| 2025-05-01 beat | -3.11 | -2.52 | +18.9% | -3.0% | -5.3% | -9.8% | +0.1% |
| 2025-02-14 miss | -2.73 | -2.91 | -6.7% | -4.4% | +3.4% | +2.8% | +2.5% |
| 2024-11-07 beat | -1.94 | 0.03 | +101.5% | +9.2% | -3.0% | -20.9% | -9.2% |
| 2024-08-01 beat | -3.35 | -3.33 | +0.7% | -16.5% | -21.0% | -10.5% | -17.8% |
| 2024-05-02 beat | -3.57 | -3.07 | +14.1% | +3.1% | +12.7% | -2.3% | +17.7% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.