MRNA chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +1.9% | +1.6% | 9.4% | 53% |
| Day 2 | -0.8% | -0.6% | 6.1% | 43% |
| Day 3 | +0.2% | -0.5% | 5.3% | 47% |
| 5-day | -1.0% | -0.5% | 15.3% | 47% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 beat | -2.06 | -1.97 | +4.3% | -0.1% | -5.4% | +7.9% | +156.0% |
| 2026-04-30 beat | -3.88 | -3.40 | +12.4% | +1.5% | -1.2% | +19.8% | +0.6% |
| 2026-02-13 beat | -2.64 | -2.11 | +20.2% | +4.3% | +5.3% | +19.1% | +27.7% |
| 2025-11-06 beat | -2.16 | -0.51 | +76.4% | +7.1% | +3.3% | +2.6% | +15.0% |
| 2025-08-01 beat | -3.00 | -2.13 | +29.0% | -6.7% | -6.6% | -5.4% | -12.4% |
| 2025-05-01 beat | -3.11 | -2.52 | +18.9% | -3.0% | -5.3% | -9.8% | +0.1% |
| 2025-02-14 miss | -2.73 | -2.91 | -6.7% | -4.4% | +3.4% | +2.8% | +2.5% |
| 2024-11-07 beat | -1.94 | 0.03 | +101.5% | +9.2% | -3.0% | -20.9% | -9.2% |
| 2024-08-01 beat | -3.35 | -3.33 | +0.7% | -16.5% | -21.0% | -10.5% | -17.8% |
| 2024-05-02 beat | -3.57 | -3.07 | +14.1% | +3.1% | +12.7% | -2.3% | +17.7% |
| 2024-02-22 beat | -0.99 | 0.55 | +155.6% | +4.9% | +13.5% | -7.2% | +6.0% |
| 2023-11-02 miss | -2.05 | -9.53 | -364.4% | -15.6% | -6.5% | -2.4% | +12.1% |
| 2023-08-03 beat | -4.12 | -3.62 | +12.2% | -1.4% | -0.2% | -8.8% | +2.4% |
| 2023-05-04 beat | -1.73 | 0.19 | +111.0% | +0.2% | +2.0% | -5.6% | -7.4% |
| 2023-02-23 miss | 4.60 | 3.61 | -21.5% | -2.8% | -6.7% | -6.6% | +2.2% |
| 2022-11-03 miss | 3.11 | 2.53 | -18.6% | -6.6% | -0.8% | +14.3% | +19.3% |
| 2022-08-03 beat | 4.49 | 5.24 | +16.6% | +4.3% | +16.0% | -6.6% | -25.5% |
| 2022-05-04 beat | 5.62 | 8.58 | +52.6% | +4.7% | +5.8% | -20.4% | -11.5% |
| 2022-02-24 beat | 9.81 | 11.29 | +15.1% | +3.0% | +15.1% | -9.4% | +6.2% |
| 2021-11-04 miss | 9.42 | 7.70 | -18.3% | -14.5% | -17.9% | -20.5% | -6.6% |
| 2021-08-05 beat | 5.86 | 6.46 | +10.3% | -2.2% | -0.7% | -6.0% | +0.1% |
| 2021-05-06 beat | 2.47 | 2.84 | +15.1% | -9.1% | -1.4% | -6.6% | +36.8% |
| 2021-02-25 miss | -0.36 | -0.69 | -89.6% | +4.1% | +2.5% | -10.8% | -10.2% |
| 2020-10-29 miss | -0.37 | -0.59 | -60.4% | +4.0% | +8.4% | +0.3% | +114.3% |
| 2020-08-05 beat | -0.36 | -0.31 | +14.6% | -1.2% | -3.4% | -8.3% | -14.5% |
| 2020-05-07 beat | -0.36 | -0.35 | +3.8% | +14.0% | +8.7% | +21.4% | +11.1% |
| 2020-02-26 beat | -0.42 | -0.37 | +12.2% | +22.3% | +22.7% | -5.7% | -4.2% |
| 2019-11-06 beat | -0.44 | -0.37 | +15.6% | +1.2% | +8.5% | +4.8% | +7.3% |
| 2019-08-08 beat | -0.45 | -0.41 | +8.9% | -0.4% | +1.1% | -1.3% | +28.2% |
| 2019-05-09 miss | -0.36 | -0.40 | -9.7% | -0.9% | +7.1% | -7.4% | -35.8% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.