MSCI chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -1.2% | -0.9% | 8.1% | 50% |
| Day 2 | -0.2% | -0.7% | 2.4% | 40% |
| Day 3 | +0.2% | +0.3% | 1.7% | 60% |
| 5-day | -1.2% | -1.5% | 6.0% | 40% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 miss | 4.98 | 4.94 | -0.8% | -10.3% | -10.1% | +3.1% | +0.6% |
| 2026-04-21 beat | 4.46 | 4.55 | +2.1% | +1.0% | +5.4% | -0.4% | -2.6% |
| 2026-01-28 beat | 4.59 | 4.66 | +1.6% | -0.6% | +5.7% | -7.1% | -7.0% |
| 2025-10-28 beat | 4.37 | 4.47 | +2.3% | +1.3% | +8.6% | -3.2% | -5.2% |
| 2025-07-22 beat | 4.15 | 4.17 | +0.6% | -2.2% | -8.9% | +5.8% | +9.1% |
| 2025-04-22 beat | 3.90 | 4.00 | +2.5% | -2.2% | +0.9% | +0.4% | +4.0% |
| 2025-01-29 beat | 3.95 | 4.18 | +5.8% | -5.2% | -5.6% | -1.8% | -0.4% |
| 2024-10-29 beat | 3.77 | 3.86 | +2.3% | +2.4% | -2.7% | +1.6% | +4.5% |
| 2024-07-23 beat | 3.55 | 3.64 | +2.6% | +8.7% | +7.9% | +0.0% | +2.9% |
| 2024-04-23 beat | 3.47 | 3.52 | +1.4% | -7.0% | -13.4% | +4.4% | +13.0% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.