MSCI chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -0.1% | -0.6% | 5.1% | 47% |
| Day 2 | +0.4% | +0.6% | 2.2% | 58% |
| Day 3 | +0.6% | +0.6% | 2.2% | 67% |
| 5-day | +1.4% | +1.2% | 5.9% | 57% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 miss | 4.98 | 4.94 | -0.8% | -10.3% | -10.1% | +3.1% | +0.6% |
| 2026-04-21 beat | 4.46 | 4.55 | +2.1% | +1.0% | +5.4% | -0.4% | -2.6% |
| 2026-01-28 beat | 4.59 | 4.66 | +1.6% | -0.6% | +5.7% | -7.1% | -7.0% |
| 2025-10-28 beat | 4.37 | 4.47 | +2.3% | +1.3% | +8.6% | -3.2% | -5.2% |
| 2025-07-22 beat | 4.15 | 4.17 | +0.6% | -2.2% | -8.9% | +5.8% | +9.1% |
| 2025-04-22 beat | 3.90 | 4.00 | +2.5% | -2.2% | +0.9% | +0.4% | +4.0% |
| 2025-01-29 beat | 3.95 | 4.18 | +5.8% | -5.2% | -5.6% | -1.8% | -0.4% |
| 2024-10-29 beat | 3.77 | 3.86 | +2.3% | +2.4% | -2.7% | +1.6% | +4.5% |
| 2024-07-23 beat | 3.55 | 3.64 | +2.6% | +8.7% | +7.9% | +0.0% | +2.9% |
| 2024-04-23 beat | 3.47 | 3.52 | +1.4% | -7.0% | -13.4% | +4.4% | +13.0% |
| 2024-01-30 beat | 3.29 | 3.68 | +11.9% | +5.3% | +9.3% | -3.4% | -6.9% |
| 2023-10-31 beat | 3.31 | 3.45 | +4.1% | -1.9% | -2.2% | +5.5% | +10.5% |
| 2023-07-25 beat | 3.11 | 3.26 | +4.9% | +1.2% | +9.0% | -0.4% | -2.3% |
| 2023-04-25 beat | 3.00 | 3.14 | +4.7% | -1.6% | -13.5% | -0.6% | -3.0% |
| 2023-01-31 beat | 2.76 | 2.84 | +2.9% | +1.6% | +4.9% | +5.4% | -2.7% |
| 2022-10-25 beat | 2.71 | 2.85 | +5.0% | +1.0% | +8.8% | +4.8% | +13.5% |
| 2022-07-26 beat | 2.67 | 2.78 | +4.0% | -0.9% | +1.0% | +7.9% | +5.6% |
| 2022-04-26 beat | 2.79 | 2.98 | +6.9% | -2.7% | -7.0% | +0.5% | -3.0% |
| 2022-01-27 beat | 2.49 | 2.51 | +0.7% | -0.2% | -0.1% | +9.9% | +2.0% |
| 2021-10-26 beat | 2.43 | 2.53 | +4.3% | +0.0% | -1.4% | +1.7% | -0.1% |
| 2021-07-27 beat | 2.31 | 2.45 | +5.9% | +1.9% | +1.4% | +6.0% | +7.5% |
| 2021-04-27 beat | 2.26 | 2.46 | +9.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | -1.0% | -4.6% |
| 2021-01-28 beat | 1.94 | 1.96 | +0.9% | -2.5% | +0.5% | +8.8% | +6.3% |
| 2020-10-27 beat | 1.82 | 2.20 | +21.1% | +0.0% | +2.1% | +3.5% | +13.2% |
| 2020-07-28 beat | 1.68 | 1.77 | +5.4% | +0.2% | -4.5% | -3.2% | -1.2% |
| 2020-04-28 beat | 1.69 | 1.90 | +12.5% | +2.2% | -3.8% | +5.7% | +1.1% |
| 2020-01-30 beat | 1.61 | 1.67 | +3.9% | -0.1% | +3.7% | +1.4% | +7.8% |
| 2019-10-31 beat | 1.59 | 1.68 | +5.6% | +2.1% | +2.4% | +5.2% | +9.4% |
| 2019-08-01 beat | 1.51 | 1.54 | +2.2% | +0.4% | -0.8% | +0.1% | +4.1% |
| 2019-05-02 beat | 1.40 | 1.55 | +10.3% | +1.1% | -0.6% | +0.3% | -2.3% |
| 2019-01-31 beat | 1.30 | 1.31 | +0.9% | -0.8% | +4.6% | +1.3% | +9.9% |
| 2018-11-01 beat | 1.29 | 1.35 | +4.4% | -2.5% | -2.1% | +3.2% | +9.7% |
| 2018-08-02 beat | 1.28 | 1.30 | +1.3% | +0.6% | +4.5% | +1.7% | +5.9% |
| 2018-05-03 beat | 1.26 | 1.31 | +3.8% | -2.9% | -0.8% | +7.1% | +9.6% |
| 2018-02-01 beat | 1.00 | 1.15 | +14.6% | +3.2% | +5.1% | -8.5% | -0.3% |
| 2017-11-02 beat | 0.97 | 1.00 | +3.0% | -1.0% | +6.7% | +2.0% | +1.7% |
| 2017-08-03 beat | 0.90 | 0.95 | +5.2% | +1.0% | +2.8% | -4.0% | +3.3% |
| 2017-05-04 beat | 0.85 | 0.88 | +3.5% | -0.2% | -3.8% | +0.7% | +7.2% |
| 2017-02-02 beat | 0.75 | 0.81 | +7.4% | +1.8% | +6.2% | +1.6% | +6.6% |
| 2016-10-27 beat | 0.73 | 0.77 | +5.2% | +1.6% | -4.0% | -0.7% | +0.9% |
| 2016-07-28 beat | 0.72 | 0.77 | +7.4% | +0.5% | +1.6% | +0.6% | +4.8% |
| 2016-04-28 beat | 0.63 | 0.68 | +7.9% | -1.2% | -1.4% | -0.7% | +5.4% |
| 2016-02-04 beat | 0.59 | 0.66 | +12.1% | -1.9% | +0.9% | -2.4% | +4.6% |
| 2015-10-29 beat | 0.54 | 0.60 | +11.3% | +0.6% | +3.9% | +4.7% | +7.0% |
| 2015-07-30 beat | 0.55 | 0.56 | +1.0% | -0.7% | +1.6% | -2.1% | -8.5% |
| 2015-04-30 miss | 0.50 | 0.50 | -0.1% | -1.4% | -2.3% | +0.7% | +1.6% |
| 2015-02-05 beat | 0.48 | 0.49 | +2.0% | -0.3% | +0.7% | +3.1% | +0.3% |
| 2014-10-30 beat | 0.49 | 0.50 | +2.5% | +0.0% | -0.5% | +2.0% | +2.2% |
| 2014-07-31 beat | 0.50 | 0.55 | +10.4% | +0.9% | -2.8% | -3.0% | +2.0% |
| 2014-04-30 miss | 0.51 | 0.46 | -9.0% | -1.0% | -2.8% | +3.9% | +6.5% |
| 2014-02-06 miss | 0.53 | 0.48 | -10.1% | +0.8% | -1.9% | +4.2% | +12.3% |
| 2013-10-31 miss | 0.53 | 0.53 | -0.9% | -1.1% | -1.1% | -0.3% | +9.7% |
| 2013-08-01 beat | 0.53 | 0.58 | +10.5% | +3.1% | +4.2% | +3.6% | +2.7% |
| 2013-05-01 beat | 0.53 | 0.57 | +7.0% | -0.6% | -2.5% | +2.6% | +6.0% |
| 2013-02-07 miss | 0.52 | 0.52 | -0.4% | -0.4% | -3.4% | +0.8% | +0.8% |
| 2012-11-06 miss | 0.50 | 0.49 | -1.4% | -4.8% | -4.2% | -0.4% | +15.6% |
| 2012-08-02 beat | 0.49 | 0.50 | +2.1% | -1.3% | -3.2% | +8.7% | +8.8% |
| 2012-05-03 miss | 0.39 | 0.34 | -12.8% | -0.2% | -3.3% | -3.3% | -5.2% |
| 2012-05-02 miss | 0.47 | 0.44 | -5.9% | -3.9% | -4.1% | -2.9% | -5.2% |
| 2012-02-02 beat | 0.44 | 0.45 | +2.4% | -0.2% | -1.6% | +7.0% | +6.2% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.