MSFT chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +0.6% | +0.6% | 6.3% | 50% |
| Day 2 | +0.5% | +0.7% | 2.1% | 55% |
| Day 3 | +0.5% | +0.4% | 2.3% | 60% |
| 5-day | +2.0% | +1.7% | 10.2% | 60% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 beat | 4.24 | 4.74 | +11.8% | +12.1% | +15.5% | +10.8% | +13.8% |
| 2026-04-29 beat | 4.07 | 4.27 | +4.9% | -3.2% | -3.9% | +3.2% | +12.9% |
| 2026-01-28 beat | 3.92 | 4.14 | +5.7% | -8.6% | -10.0% | -9.2% | -8.1% |
| 2025-10-29 beat | 3.66 | 4.13 | +12.7% | -2.0% | -2.9% | -5.5% | -7.4% |
| 2025-07-30 beat | 3.38 | 3.65 | +8.1% | +8.2% | +3.9% | -2.4% | -5.0% |
| 2025-04-30 beat | 3.22 | 3.46 | +7.4% | +9.1% | +7.6% | +3.0% | +8.6% |
| 2025-01-29 beat | 3.12 | 3.23 | +3.5% | -5.3% | -6.2% | +0.2% | -6.4% |
| 2024-10-30 beat | 3.11 | 3.30 | +6.1% | -4.0% | -6.1% | +4.7% | +6.1% |
| 2024-07-30 beat | 2.94 | 2.95 | +0.2% | -0.6% | -1.1% | -4.8% | -1.3% |
| 2024-04-25 beat | 2.84 | 2.94 | +3.4% | +3.3% | +1.8% | +0.1% | +5.9% |
| 2024-01-30 beat | 2.77 | 2.93 | +5.8% | -0.4% | -2.7% | +4.1% | +4.5% |
| 2023-10-24 beat | 2.65 | 2.99 | +12.8% | +4.4% | +3.1% | +1.6% | +10.8% |
| 2023-07-25 beat | 2.55 | 2.69 | +5.6% | -2.7% | -3.8% | -3.0% | -5.3% |
| 2023-04-25 beat | 2.23 | 2.45 | +9.8% | +7.7% | +7.2% | +3.1% | +10.3% |
| 2023-01-24 beat | 2.32 | 2.32 | +0.2% | -3.1% | -0.6% | +5.0% | +3.6% |
| 2022-10-25 beat | 2.31 | 2.35 | +1.9% | -7.8% | -7.7% | -4.9% | +7.0% |
| 2022-07-26 miss | 2.29 | 2.23 | -2.7% | +3.7% | +6.7% | +5.1% | +3.8% |
| 2022-04-26 beat | 2.20 | 2.22 | +1.1% | +4.4% | +4.8% | +2.4% | -6.1% |
| 2022-01-25 beat | 2.32 | 2.48 | +7.0% | +6.8% | +2.8% | +5.6% | +0.2% |
| 2021-10-26 beat | 2.08 | 2.27 | +9.3% | +1.9% | +4.2% | +3.4% | +2.0% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.